Late voters may play vital role in deciding winner

DUBLIN Central is a fascinating contest.

The three big parties want bragging rights, but know they face a strong independent campaign and a good Sinn Féin option.

And there is the subscript of whether Tony Gregory, who died in January, can help deliver one more blow to his long time adversary, Bertie Ahern, in the battle for the hearts of Dubliners.

For Fianna Fáil former taoiseach Ahern, and his famous Drumcondra Mafia, are trying to pull his brother Maurice over the line.

Fine Gael candidate, Paschal Donohoe, was the initial favourite, but competition has intensified.

Labour would love to upset the big two with the able senator Ivana Bacik.

Although Fine Gael’s stock is high, its Dublin figures have slipped below Labour.

Donohoe would love to see a big turnout of fresh new voters, particularly those from the middle class areas.

Around political circles there is interest in the supplementary register. These are the late voters who applied as recently as last month and, de facto, have committed to vote.

A large supplementary register would indicate a surge of interest in the campaign. Instead 2,390 have joined in the constituency.

As a weather vane of interest the breakdown is worse for Donohoe – 629 people were added in his old ward of Cabra/Glasnevin, the affluent half of the constituency. Meanwhile 1,761 residents of the North Inner City – Gregory’s heartland and the ward of his replacement Maureen O’Sullivan – signed up at the last minute.

Beyond the Gregory Effect, it is hard to gauge the appeal of his successor. As Gregory’s former election agent, she knows the doors to knock on.

Old supporters with fond memories may rally for O’Sullivan, but even if she replicates his tally she will struggle to stay ahead of the pack.

The Labour Party’s Joe Costello has nailed down Jim Mitchell’s seat in the constituency and in 2004 Brendan Carr out-polled both Donohoe and Maurice Ahern in Cabra/Glasnevin.

Costello proved a good magnet for number twos and threes in the 2007 general election, Mary Lou McDonald’s seconds helped him kill off Donohoe. It is just dubious whether Costello’s workmanlike methods can be passed over to the Trinity College professor, Senator Bacik.

Even with a massive poster of Eamon Gilmore beaming down from Liberty Hall, nobody knows how she will fare on her own.

Since Fianna Fáil overlooked councillor Mary Fitzpatrick its campaign has appeared a desperate effort to preserve Bertie Ahern’s legacy.

Make no mistake, on his own Maurice Ahern is a very poor candidate.

Track his career since he entered politics aged 60. In 1999, he topped the poll in the local elections in his area, was lord mayor for 2000 to 2001 yet in 2004 he was the last over the line in Cabra/Glasnevin.

But in many respects Maurice is not seeking election, his brother is. Bertie Ahern has campaigned as rigorously as ever. Beyond the current Dáil term Fianna Fáil does not believe it has three seats, Labour would be stretching it to deliver a second.

Only Fine Gael, independents and Sinn Féin see themselves as custodians of the spare seat.

Sinn Féin has a good candidate in Christy Burke. But the party’s body language reveals it does not think it stands a chance of winning.

If it did, McDonald would be on the ballot.

Long term she will eye up Gregory’s seat, but if she is not elected to something tomorrow (she is running for an MEP seat) she will have little reason to demand the public profile she enjoys.

Fine Gael and Labour are best placed, Fianna Fáil have a huge vote from 2007 and there are two outside bets to mix it up. Fascinating.