Glimmer of hope for Soldiers of Destiny

IF YOU voted for Fianna Fáil in one general election, what is the likelihood that you will continue to support the party in the next one?

Quite good, according to the findings of a major new survey which should provide some crumb of comfort to any hard-pressed Solider of Destiny currently fearing an electoral wipeout in the forthcoming poll.

The Irish National Election Study, launched in Trinity College Dublin, reveals that the most reliable indicator of how people vote in a general election is their voting patterns in the previous one.

The survey highlights how 63% of the electorate voted for the same political party in the past two general elections. It shows 35% of the electorate voted for Fianna Fáil in both the 2002 and 2007 elections, while 15% voted for Fine Gael in both elections, followed by 5% for Labour, 3% for Independents, 2% each for Sinn Féin and the Greens.

Professor Michael Marsh said the results showed the size of the floating vote was remarkably higher that had been previously thought.

However, he also warned it was an almost universal fact since the founding of the state that Fianna Fáil do bad in mid-term elections regardless of whether they are in government or not.

The survey, carried out by the Economic and Social Research Institute, tracked the actual votes and voting intentions of over 1,000 people on an annual basis between 2002 and 2007 — a period that included the two general elections of 2002 and 2007 as well as the local and European elections in 2004.

It highlighted how voters change political allegiances between the different types of vote and whether they return to established voting patterns for general elections.

“Behaviour at one general election is a much stronger pointer to behaviour at the next election than either mid-term behaviour or voting intentions in inter-election poll,” said Prof Marsh.

“Those who support parties at mid-term elections certainly cannot be relied on to stay the course, and those who desert may well return when it come to a general election,” he added.

Prof Marsh said a person’s voting intention was quite different to their actual vote and could be described as “a whim.”

However, he stressed declarations of voting intention became more reliable as they are taken closer to a general election.

For instance, the survey shows that people’s voting intention in 2006 was the second most reliable barometer of how they subsequently voted in the 2007 general election after how they have voted in the 2002 poll.

The study also provides respondents attitudes on a range of issues including immigration, the economy, globalisation, the North, abortion and crime

* The findings of the survey can be accessed online at www.tcd.ie/ines