FF faces election disaster in poll fallout

FIANNA Fáil faces a bloodbath in the triple set of elections on June 5 after a poll showed Fine Gael with an unprecedented 17-point lead over Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s party.

Mr Cowen’s personal approval ratings have sunk and just one in 10 people say they are satisfied with his government – a situation that will be desperately hard to retrieve with just three weeks to polling day.

The poll shows support for Fine Gael up six points to 38%, while Fianna Fáil has fallen by a further point to just 21%. Never before has Fine Gael been so far ahead of its main rival.

If these results were realised on polling day, Fine Gael would dominate the local and European elections and two Dáil by-elections.

Having come within nine seats of Fianna Fáil at the last local elections in 2004, Fine Gael is set to comfortably overtake its rival and become the largest party at local government level this time round.

In addition, it would continue to have the largest representation in the European Parliament, where it holds five seats to Fianna Fáil’s four, based on these results.

Fine Gael would also be in poll position to win the by-elections in Dublin South and Dublin Central.

The Irish Times/TNS MRBI poll showed Labour down four points to 20%, but the party is likely to take comfort from being virtually neck and neck with Fianna Fáil. In addition, Labour’s Eamon Gilmore is the most popular leader, with his personal approval ratings up seven points to 51%.

The Greens are down one point to 3%, with party leader John Gormley’s ratings down four to 25%.

Sinn Féin remains unchanged on 9%, with party president Gerry Adams’s ratings up two points to 34%.

Independents also remained unchanged at 9%.

Fine Gael’s sensational bounce was partially being attributed last night to the “Lee lift” – the boost it got from its recruitment of RTÉ economics editor George Lee to run in the Dublin South by-election.

Party leader Enda Kenny also enjoyed a boost, with his approval ratings up three points to 33%. By contrast, Mr Cowen appears a liability for Fianna Fáil, with his approval ratings down six points to just 18%.

Dissatisfaction with the Government has increased, up four points to 86%. Just 10% said they were satisfied with the Government, a finding which may be linked to the severe spending cuts and tax increases introduced in last month’s budget.

But Mr Cowen insisted he was not out of touch with the pain felt by people as he vowed to defy the polls and escape an election rout.

He sidestepped questions on whether he feared a poor showing would trigger a challenge to his leadership, however. “We don’t anticipate that we are not going to do a good job in the elections. We are already campaigning strongly and are communicating to the public why certain policy decisions are being made.”

A spokesman for Fine Gael said the figures were “extremely encouraging”, but added: “That old cliche holds true: polling day is the only day that counts.”