UCC tool helps predict public health
Their work, which involves tapping into the “wisdom of crowds”, will investigate possible uses of so-called prediction markets to forecast key indicators of public health in Ireland.
Prediction markets are small- scale financial markets operated to predict future events.
One of the areas being examined is how many people in Ireland will catch the flu this winter. The method could help the Health Service Executive to order the correct quantity of vaccine to cover the country’s needs — and save money.
The work is being conducted by a team at University College Cork’s (UCC) School of Medicine, which has teamed up with Intrade, a Dublin-based firm specialising in prediction markets. Intrade has supplied data to the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the US Department of Defense.
The project is being led by Dr Dylan Evans, lecturer in behavioural science at UCC, and is funded by an Innovation Partnerships Feasibility Study Award from Enterprise Ireland.
“The idea is that the collected knowledge of many people, each with a different perspective, will be more accurate than an individual or small group or even experts,” Dr Dylan said.
“When they have been used to predict the outcomes of political elections, prediction markets have been found to be more accurate than alternative methods of forecasting.”
Dr Evans said so far the potential of prediction markets had not been extensively tested in medical contexts.
“The obvious area to look at in the first instance is infectious disease,” he said.
His team hopes to tap into the knowledge of GPs, microbiologists and others working on the ground in the health service.
Chad Rigetti, the vice president of business development at Intrade said: “If successful this research may position Ireland and the collaborators assembled by Dr Evans as global leaders on this emerging topic.”
The research is due to be completed in February.
CONNECT WITH US TODAY
Be the first to know the latest news and updates
