We don’t have Barack Obama, so Enda Kenny will just have to do

FINE GAEL intends hosting 30 so-called “town hall meetings” throughout the country between now and Christmas in an American-style appeal to the electorate.

Although both US Democrats and Republicans indulge in this form of allowing the people to meet their political representatives in public it is an initiative that our voters are likely to associate with President-elect Barack Obama’s tactical success. Now that we are seeing “change” in the US — and seismic change at that — the implication that Fine Gael wants to push is that Ireland is seeking something similar. The drawback is that Fine Gael doesn’t have a Barack Obama-style person to promote through these meetings.

Notwithstanding that, Fine Gael and its leader Enda Kenny clearly hope that they will be the beneficiaries of a desire for change, especially with Fianna Fáil’s popularity plummeting to previously unseen depths in the opinion polls and Fine Gael opening a sizeable lead for the first time ever.

Not surprisingly, Fine Gael is hopeful that this new found popularity is going to be tested in its favour — in the form of a general election — over the next 12 months. It knows that the European and local elections next June really don’t count, apart from providing encouragement.

Kenny is talking of becoming Taoiseach within 12 months. He may get what he wishes for. Most certainly the existing government is going to come under even more severe pressure as the economy contracts, especially as it has not started dealing correctly with many of the issues as yet. Taoiseach Brian Cowen is very lucky that the Green ministers remain committed to keeping their jobs (and saving the environment). But that luck may not hold if divisions emerge within the Greens. Further cracks within Fianna Fáil are likely to develop too.

Fine Gael and Labour both have to be prepared to take advantage of any likelihood of the government not running its course until 2012 which is why both have members on “an election footing”.

But it is by no means certain that Kenny would sweep to power if fortunate enough to face an election. Two major concerns have to be addressed: the public confidence’s that a coalition of Fine Gael and Labour (and possibly others) would come up with a coherent, agreed and workable plan to restore economic confidence and also Kenny’s own suitability for the post of Taoiseach.

To the economics first. Richard Bruton’s abilities as Fine Gael’s finance spokesman are manifest: he has been consistent in his warnings and in offering solutions and he has an authority based on the perception that he knows what he is talking about. Joan Burton has done well too in her counterpart role, aided by her leader Eamon Gilmore.

But while many voters might be happy with the idea of Bruton having a shot at running the department of finance, as a vote for Fine Gael would imply, would he be able to perform the job as he would want in a coalition government? The economic statements of Fine Gael and Labour have diverged sharply in recent times.

Fine Gael is moving quickly to ideas of radical (and unpopular) cost reductions in the State sector but Labour is talking of rejuvenating the economy through State funded investment without explaining where the money would come from. Labour is disposed towards higher taxation but Fine Gael less so.

As important is the issue of leadership, something the electorate will be looking for as much as a financial and economic plan.

Whereas Pat Rabbitte as Labour leader was willing to subjugate himself to Kenny, Gilmore came to power in his party on a principle of no pre-agreed coalitions. That could change for tactical reasons but Gilmore may be less willing than Rabbitte to agreeing to playing second fiddle, even if the numbers suggest he would have no option other than to do so.

Kenny is talking confidently at present. He is ready, he says, having served his apprenticeship. But he has been around for such a long time now that he resembles John McCain more than Obama and may be no more convincing to the electorate than he was 18 months ago.

Remember how vulnerable Bertie Ahern was then, sinking under the waves of scandal, and how Kenny, in the crucial live televised debate, blew out of wind when he needed to keep the storm going? Even as Ahern floundered this year — before resigning — his popularity rating was as high as Kenny’s when the latter should have had him buried.

Of course the difference now is that Ahern is gone and Cowen does not have his likeability or appeal. Kenny suddenly looks like the more affable guy and Cowen, lacking in public support, behaves like a flat-track bully towards the Mayoman. Kenny lacked the x-factor to compete with Ahern but may not need it to combat Cowen.

The incumbent may be intellectually smarter but he is annoying people in a way that his predecessor never did, especially when he tries to appeal to voters rationally. If the people decide Cowen has shown himself not to be up to the job they might give it to anyone else instead, even Kenny.

Kenny has things going for him. He is a tireless worker. His energy and determination saved and revitalised the party when it could have split and crumbled in 2002. There were very few people within Fine Gael who could have achieved what he did. And he’s a honest and decent man, untainted by scandal or corruption, and he clearly cares about the country and doing his best for it. Those are the qualities that would have to be emphasised in an election, even if Fine Gael’s intention for the use of power is to be utterly ruthless and unforgiving in dealing with the financial crisis.Yet emphasising those qualities might not be enough, even in very tough times. Ironically it’s when he acts tough that he appears weakest. When he tries to push an idea it often appears contrived, although previous pre-election disasters such as drunk tanks for hospital A&E departments and military boot camps for young offenders will be forgotten in a campaign fought on economic issues.He can struggle in interviews if the conversation strays away from what he has prepared earlier. His strong rural accent may not help him either in urban areas. However, Fine Gael — and by extension the people of Ireland — are now stuck with him as the only real alternative to Brian Cowen outside of Fianna Fáil. Fine Gael is not going to remove him when ahead in the polls and with likely success in the European and local elections — if only as a protest vote against Fianna Fáil — to sustain it. There is also a lack of an obvious inspiring replacement within Fine Gael. The party knows that it is not too many seats away from where it needs to be and it was the failure of Labour to deliver sufficient seats in the last election — as much as dissatisfaction with Kenny — that meant it did not get into power.

I genuinely hope that my criticisms of Kenny to date have been misplaced — and that, to use a great George Bush malapropism, I have “misunderestimated” him — because the country needs to believer there is a real and convincing alternative to a Fianna Fáil-led government should circumstances lead to an election.

We’re not going to get change via a Barrack Obama character so Kenny may just have to do.

The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday, 4.30pm to 7pm.