How ‘soft’ is no vote’s underbelly?
Next Thursday, Mr Cowen is scheduled to attend the European Council meeting in Brussels. It will prove one of the most awkward events of his political career should Ireland vote no today.
His will be an anxious wait, but should not be a long one. The count begins at 9am tomorrow, and the main political parties will have tallymen in every constituency to report what way the ballot is going.
By midday, Mr Cowen’s tallymen should be able to give him a reasonable prediction. The Department of the Environment, which is responsible for referendums, believes that the official result should be declared some time between 3pm and 5pm — unless, of course, it’s very tight, in which case the count could drag on much longer.
The anecdotal evidence would seem to suggest Lisbon is heading for defeat. Many voters interviewed by journalists have spoken of not knowing what the treaty contains, of confusion about the claims and counter-claims of the yes and no campaigns. The no side, in particular, have sought to capitalise on that confusion with a simple slogan: “If you don’t know, vote no.” Chances are, a lot of people will do exactly that. But not everyone — and this is where the Government is pinning its hopes.
“There’s a soft underbelly to the no vote,” says Foreign Affairs Minister Micheál Martin. His contention is that a lot of prospective no voters will have changed their minds in the last few days as the yes campaign made a better fist of articulating and clarifying the issues. Those voters will now be in the yes camp.
But the no vote may have a soft underbelly for a second reason: citizens who are confused or in the dark about a referendum issue are not always motivated to turn out and vote. Unsure of which way to lean, they may simply decide to stay at home. And that could drive down the prospective no vote. That, at least, is what Mr Cowen, his cabinet colleagues, and the rest of the yes campaign will be hoping.
They will also be hoping that their concerted, almost desperate, efforts since last Friday, when a shock opinion poll showed the no side ahead for the first time, will have persuaded their own supporters to turn out in force. Between them, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour accounted for almost 80% of the vote in the last general election. All three parties support a yes vote. If they get their respective bases out in force, they should be able to get the result they’re looking for.
What are the numbers, then? Based on previous referendums, the no campaign can be relied upon to form 18%-20% of the electorate. This means that, if the turnout falls below 40%, Lisbon will almost certainly be defeated.
The Government is predicting that, with a turnout of about 45%, the yes campaign should be home and dry. That prediction, however, is based on the assumption the no vote does indeed have a soft underbelly and the 18%-20% figure won’t rise substantially.
It is possible that a scenario completely opposite to the Government’s prediction could unfold: turnout could be very high — in the late 40 or 50 percent — but only because the no vote has turned out en masse determined to defeat the treaty.
However, based on the feedback the main political parties are receiving, the odds must be on the yes campaign prevailing. Last week’s opinion poll may have served as enough of a wake-up call for the yes campaign to rescue itself from the mire. Political predictions are a foolish business at the best of times, but the three main parties should get enough of their core vote out to win it, possibly by about three to five points.
That would give Mr Cowen something to celebrate on Saturday, the first anniversary of the Government — it being a year to the day since Bertie Ahern unveiled the Fianna Fáil-Green-PD government.
But if the country says no, it will be a birthday to forget for Mr Cowen and his cabinet colleagues.
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