Ageing profile: Life expectancy to rise by 10 years
The Central Statistics Office has predicted huge demographic changes by 2041 with elderly people accounting for almost one in four of the population compared to the current rate of 11%, due to improving life expectancy.
Significant changes in the make-up of the Irish population due to varying birth, death and migration levels will also increase dependency rates with important consequences for government finances in coming years.
Nevertheless, the size of the labour force is also predicted to increase by 0.4% per annum up to 2021 even if there is a sharp fall in net migration which has peaked in recent years.
The CSO predicts that Ireland’s population could reach 5 million by 2014 from its current level of 4.25 million — the highest figure since 1871 — if current rates of migration and birth continue.
However, the more likely scenario of zero net migration and declining fertility will mean the Republic’s population figure will still not have reached 5 million by 2041.
According to the CSO, the number of people aged 65 and over will more than double from 460,000 in 2006 to reach at least 1.3 million by 2041, irrespective of any future changes in migration and birth rates.
The data provides firm evidence of Ireland’s greying population as pensioners will account for 20%-25% of the population in 2041 compared to the existing rate of 11%. The number of people aged 80 and over will quadruple over the same period from 110,000 in 2006 to about 440,000 in 2041.
The large rise in the number of elderly people is due to increased life expectancy resulting from improved living conditions and medical care.
Men can expect to live almost 10 years longer by 2041, while women will have a 6.7-year increase in life expectancy.
By 2041, the average life expectancy of males will be 86.5 years — up from the current level of 76.7 years. Female life expectancy will increase to 88.2 years compared to the current average of 81.5 years.
According to the latest figures, Irish males have the 13th highest life expectancy of 30 European countries surveyed, while Irish women are ranked 17th.
The demographic changes presented by the CSO also highlight significant policy considerations which the Government will have to face over the next few decades.
It will have to plan for significant changes in demand for housing, education, health services and social welfare, including pensions, compared to current levels.
One of the main points emerging from the CSO figures is that the dependency ratio — the number of people aged 0-14 and 65 and over compared to the people of working age — is set to worsen.
In addition to the increasing number of retired people, Ireland’s young population will also increase by at least 10% over the next decade.
CSO director Aidan Punch said Ireland was enjoying a “golden age” in terms of having low dependency levels, but that the situation will definitely “deteriorate” due to our changing age profiles.
The CSO also predicted that the average size of Irish families will continue to fall due to declining fertility rates. At best, the average Irish woman will give birth to 1.9 children — below the natural replacement rate of 2.1 — but still high by international standards.
Mr Punch said migration levels would be the key factor in determining future population growth. However, he claimed migration rates were also the most difficult factor to predict, as they were influenced by the labour market situation which is in turn affected by economic growth levels.
Emigration from the Republic has risen from 26,500 to 42,200 last year, many of whom are returning immigrants.
The number of immigrants here could fall from its 2007 record high of 109,500, due to the strengthening economies in the EU accession states and more liberal labour markets in the EU 15 countries.
Even if net migration is zero, the labour force will still increase annually by 0.4% to 2021. That equates to an extra 13,000 people in the labour force each year.
