Poll: Winners and losers
Having lost the seat she has held since 1982 in the last general election, the leader of the Seanad Mary O’Rourke is on the comeback trail
Famed for publicly challenging a number of late-night controversial zonings adopted by her fellow Wicklow County Councillors, Deirdre de Burca has been a high-profile Green councillor since 1999. Having polled a respectable 6% in the 2002 election, she is expected to take the seat vacated by the Independent TD Mildred Fox.
Following a high-profile European Election campaign in 2004, during which he won 65,321 votes but failed to secure a seat, Pearse Doherty’s bid for a Dáil seat has gained momentum. The task of trebling his 2002 general election vote in Donegal South West is now deemed possible, although gathering transfers could prove problematic.
With Joe Sherlock, Cork East’s sitting Labour TD not contesting this election, his son Cllr Sean Sherlock is tasked with retaining the family seat. Having topped the poll in the 2004 local elections, Sherlock has increased his profile as Deputy Mayor of Mallow.
Championing the slogan “A Safe Pair of Hands” across the Dublin North constituency where the leader of the Green Party Trevor Sargent is the only sitting TD contesting the election, the former Dublin goalkeeper needs more than 9,000 votes to get elected.
Once a Fine Gael strong-hold, the constituency of Dublin North is perceived as a must-win region for the party. A first-time runner, the former president of the Irish Medical Organisation (IMO), Dr James Reilly, will have to win up to 7,000 votes to be in with a strong chance.
Galway’s water crisis could have played out two ways for the Major of Galway City.
With the labels of scapegoat or saviour on offer, O’Brolcháin has emerged as an articulate and personable candidate.
With the Green Party moving upwards in the opinion polls, O’Brolcháin could take the fifth and final seat.
A former midwife, Cllr Phil Prendergast recently took to the picket lines at South Tipperary General Hospital in support of the nurses’ dispute. She hopes to take the seat of Independent TD Seamus Healy.
Hailing from a well-known FF family, Dara Calleary will benefit from instant surname recognition on the doorsteps of Mayo as both his father and grandfather served as Fianna Fáil TDs. He could oust Independent TD Jerry Cowley.
Following the redrawing of the Meath constituency, a vacant seat has emerged in Meath East, expected to go to Dominic Hannigan.
An unexpected vote winner in 2002, Ms Sexton holds one of the most endangered PD seats. With the four-seat Longford-Roscommon constituency changed to Longford-Westmeath, she will have to raise her profile in order to retain a seat.
Under a boundary revision in Dublin North Central, the constituency has been reduced to a three-seater. Mr McGrath is perceived as the most likely candidate to lose out to Fianna Fáil’s Sean Haughey and Ivor Callely and Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton.
A TD for 25 years, Mr Moynihan finds himself in a newly-drawn constituency where four sitting TDs are vying for three seats. With FF’s Batt O’Keeffe forced to move into the new constituency of Cork North West, he will have to fend off the challenge of two Fianna Fáil TDs and a former Fine Gael TD to retain his seat.
Having contested five elections, Mr Mulcahy polled 4,990 on his sixth outing in 2002 and secured the fifth seat in the five seat constituency of Dublin South Central. Retaining that seat, however, could prove his most difficult task yet. Unless, he gains significant transfers from FF’s Sean Ardagh, he could lose out to Labour’s Eric Byrne who obtained the second highest vote in the Dublin City Council elections in 2004.
If popular tide turns against the Progressive Democrats, Ms O’Malley could become one of the party’s most high-profile losses. With both Labour and Fine Gael on the warpath, she could be a casualty.
Sinn Féin’s Dessie Ellis has mounted a seriously competitive campaign in Dublin North West and is targeting the seat of FF’s Mr Carey. With his colleague Noel Ahern and Labour’s Roisin Shorthall deemed safe, Mr Carey and Mr Ellis will do battle for the third and final seat.
A Red C poll in Kerry South recently concluded that Independent TD Jackie Healy-Rae could lose the third and final seat against support for Fine Gael’s new recruit, Councillor Tom Sheahan.
The TD most strongly associated with the Corrib protests, Dr Cowley, is in danger of losing his seat to Fianna Fáil.
Having rejoined FF last year, the former Independent TD now finds himself contesting the election alongside two other sitting FF TDs.
With Mairead McGuinness’ famous European election machine turning its attentions to the general elections in Louth, FF’s Kirk must know that it his seat the MEP is lurching towards.
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