Pity the children as climate change threatens to flood Irish cities out of existence

THE great-grandchildren of youngsters starting school today will never know Ireland’s main cities, if climate changes are not addressed to prevent catastrophic flooding of the country’s coastal areas.

An alarming study predicts some 300 square kilometres of coastal land could disappear permanently by the year 2100 if current rises in temperature continue, threatening the existence of Cork, Dublin and Galway. Coastal and river flooding would also cause massive damage to Limerick and potentially make the city uninhabitable.

Less dramatic but nonetheless serious flooding will make life difficult in coastal areas within a much shorter time period, potentially beginning in as little as 14 years, when the upward trend in temperatures begins to move towards danger point.

The study was commissioned by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to examine the effects on the country’s weather, landscape, environment and population if average temperatures increase more than 2C above current levels.

Two degrees has been set down as the danger point by the EU, which has ordered all member states to take action to keep temperature rises under that threshold by reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that fuel global warming.

At the current rate of acceleration, global temperatures could rise by as much as 5.8C by the year 2100 but the EU has warned that the much lesser rise of just between 2C and 3C would mean irreversible changes to sea level, rainfall and food production. However, Ireland does not have to wait until 2100 to see the changes. According to the EPA study: “The growing season length is already showing signs of increasing with some trees at Valentia Island recording earlier beginning of growing season and later leaf fall.”

Temperatures here are expected to rise noticeably in the period 2021-2060, with increases of 1.25C in January temperatures and 1.5C in July. Beyond that, the prediction is for average annual increases of 2C, but summer increases of up to 3C, well above the danger point.

Traditional crops like the potato would suffer and farming would have to adapt to growing new crops like soybean. Insects currently unknown in Ireland would be likely to migrate here and favourite fish species would move further north.

Water shortages would become the norm during parts of the year in some areas, particularly the east coast, as increased winter rainfall would not offset reduced summer rains, and salt contamination from flooding would endanger drinking water supplies.

Regional variations in weather across the country would become much more marked, bringing challenges for planners and policy makers in how they influence population spread and infrastructural development.

EPA programme manager Gerard O’Leary said the report reinforced the need for strong action to be taken on greenhouse gas emissions.

“It is not just a matter of reducing emissions, but also of adapting to those changes and impacts that are now unavoidable.” he said.