Very unusual case raises questions about how to predict would-be serial killers

WHILE the Papazian case is notorious for his diary of how killed a man, the case also raises questions about how society can predict — and prevent — would-be serial killers.

According to police records of Papazian’s criminal past, he reached almost 50 years of age before he committed this act of extreme violence.

Dr Ian O’Donnell, boss of University College Dublin’s Institute of Criminology, said: “If someone has a history of violence, then it is reasonable to assume they will continue.

“But if a guy (like Papazian) does not come to anyone’s attention for most of his life and then carries out this extreme violence, then how on earth can you prevent it? It is very difficult to anticipate it with any degree of accuracy.”

He added: “The first thing that struck me (about the case) was how difficult it is to predict extreme violence. There is a real issue in the criminal justice system about risk prediction and this is a great example of it.

“With this guy, how many people share the same characteristics and same background (but never go on to kill)?

“One issue this case raises is how do we identify those people who are prone to demonstrate extreme violence in their lives?”

Another aspect of his case is to be found in Ireland’s own history of crime and its ties to the mass emigration of the 19th and 20th centuries.

Dr O’Donnell said: “The (Papazian) case is a really good example of how Ireland has sometimes exported its crime problem.

“That’s less so today, but in the 1950s and 1960s, more Irish men were committed to English prisons than Irish ones. So to some extent, Ireland has been protected from crime because of the emigration of people in risk categories (of offending).

“That was particularly true in the 50s and 60s, while in the 19th century the problem was exported to New York and England.”

Although hard to predict at home or abroad, cases like Papazian’s are rare indeed.

Dr O’Donnell said: “This case is remarkable in a sense that there was a clear intention to take a life and there was a degree of planning that is absent in most killings. The fact that there was a detailed record made means it is a very unusual case: the diary was clearly there for future reading and reflection.

“Most homicides involve drink and people who are known to each other and while there is no intention to cause death, death results. Often there’s a huge degree of remorse afterwards, too.

“But this is quite an unusual case. It is very rare for a killing to be as carefully planned as this one was — and even rarer for the detailed recording.”