Youngsters in 10-year study ‘disappeared’
Researchers releasing the findings of their 10-year follow-up study yesterday said exhaustive attempts to find the young people had come to nothing, leading to concerns that some, if not many, were in prison or psychiatric hospitals.
Anne Cleary of the Social Science Research Centre in University College Dublin, where the joint UCD-Trinity project was based, said the missing 20% was a major loss to the study as they were among the most disadvantaged at age 11.
"The untraced group were much more likely to be categorised as behaviour-disordered at age 11 and juvenile offenders were much more common among this group. This requires further investigation," she said.
An original group of more than 2,000 children aged 11 was whittled down to 185 for detailed study of their family background and personal circumstances but when researchers tried to track them down 10 years later, they could only interview 97.
Of the others, 21% were untraced, 21% declined to co-operate, 4% had emigrated and 2% were dead.
The follow-up study confirms fears that youngsters disadvantaged at an early age will be educationally deprived through to their adult lives, and that behaviour disorders in childhood reduce chances of successfully completing schooling.
Less than a fifth of children with behaviour problems at age 11 went on to third level compared to half of children without behavioural difficulties.
Children with a low IQ from poor economic backgrounds fared relatively badly in the education system compared to children with low IQs from financially better-off families.
The study also found that while those interviewed regarded themselves as happy and well-adjusted with healthy attitudes to alcohol, objective assessment found a significant level of anxiety and depression and high levels of heavy drinking.
But the study also turned up a positive result for children of mothers who had psychological or psychiatric problems those problems did not seem to have a long-term impact on their offspring.
Ms Cleary said the study carried a clear message for policy makers.
What this study can tell us is that the origins of this go back very early so any kind of intervention has to focus on a very early age."
The Government has commissioned a larger study to chart the progress of 10,000 newborns and 8,000 nine-year-olds at intervals until they reach 18.