Harney sees third term for FF-PD coalition

THE Government’s bounce back in the opinion polls yesterday caused Mary Harney to suggest Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats will win a third term in power.

And Education Minister Mary Hanafin, dismissed speculation that Fianna Fáil was currently planning to ditch the PDs and look to Independents to make up the numbers in Dáil Éireann.

Satisfaction with the Government’s performance and that of the Taoiseach and Tánaiste increased sharply in the poll published in the Sunday Independent.

Combined popular support for Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats at 41% exactly matches support for the alternative of Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party, in the poll conducted by Millward Brown IMS. But FF-PD is the preferred coalition option of 24% of those polled, while only 14% opt for FG-Labour, and just 10% go for the Rainbow combination of FG-Labour-Green-Independents. Just 11% backed a FF-Sinn Féin coalition, but the poll confirms that SF’s support remains steady at 10% and indicates the party will play a significant role in the formation of the next Government.

Responding to the results yesterday, the Tánaiste said it was possible the FF-PD coalition could secure a third term in Government. This could only be done if the Government made progress in the areas of health and education, the PD leader said. Speaking on RTÉ’s The Week In Politics, Ms Hanafin said Fianna Fáil was not plotting to split from the PDs, as the Coalition was as solid as ever.

Also on RTÉ, the Tánaiste said she didn’t feel an alternative Government could be sustained for very long on the basis of support from Independents.

“I do not believe you would have a stable Government,” she said.

Despite the improving results from the Government’s viewpoint, Fine Gael deputy leader Richard Bruton said he was not in the least bit worried.

“I think the electorate believe it is time for a change. I think they are willing to give us a fair wind and Enda Kenny’s support is also substantially up,” he said.

The overall satisfaction with the Government is up 10 points to 45% over the last eight months.

Compared with the previous poll in March, the Taoiseach’s satisfaction rating is up 12% to 55% and the Tánaiste is up 10% to 55%.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny also received a boost as his satisfaction rating rose by 13% to 45% and Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte is also up seven points to 53%. Green Party leader Trevor Sargent’s rating is down one to 41% and Sinn Féin’s Gerry Adams is up one to 51%.

After dropping steadily in the corresponding polls since the 2002 general election, Fianna Fáil’s support is up two points to 37%, Fine Gael is also up two points to 23%, Labour is up one at 13%, the PDs are up one at four%, the Greens are down two to 5% and Sinn Féin is steady at 10% while Independents and Others drop three points to 9%.

The poll was taken last Wednesday and Thursday, before the Government published its spending plans, including the new doctor-only medical cards, but was conducted against the backdrop of the Aer Lingus crisis and the Taoiseach’s avowal that he is a socialist.