Opinion poll backs FG, Labour as big Euro vote winners

FINE GAEL and Labour may prove to be the big winners in the European Parliament elections, according to the latest opinion poll published today.

The findings of the Irish Times/TNS/MRBI poll suggest that Fine Gael may achieve its aim of winning four seats with Labour in with a strong chance of doubling its representation to two.

Based on the findings, Fianna Fáil looks unlikely to retain its six seats and will struggle to retain five out of the 13 seats.

The Green Party also looks vulnerable to losing both of its seats with the real prospect that its Dublin seat may be lost to Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald.

The nationwide poll, which surveyed 2,000 respondents, was carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday, and includes detailed breakdowns for each of the constituencies.

There are a number of surprise findings, particularly the strong showings of Fianna Fáil candidate Seán Ó Neachtain in the three-seat North-West constituency and another FF candidate, Royston Brady, in the four-seater Dublin constituency.

Mr Ó Neachtain shows support levels of 20% in North-West, five points ahead of his more established running mate, Dr Jim McDaid, who stands at 15%.

Fine Gael’s Jim Higgins is at 17% and looks assured of taking the second seat, with the support of running mate Madeleine Taylor-Quinn (8%).

However, on the results of this poll, Dr McDaid would lose the third seat to Independent Marian Harkin (16%).

Sitting MEP Rosemary “Dana” Scallon’s support levels have dropped dramatically to 7%, putting her behind Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty at 9%.

In four-seat Dublin, Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell is the surprise front-runner, garnering 19% support. It puts him one point ahead of Mr Brady, with Proinsias de Rossa securing 14% support. Fianna Fáil’s front-runner Eoin Ryan is at a disappointing 13% and, on this showing, will be in a battle for the last seat with Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald (11%) and the Green’s sitting MEP Patricia McKenna (10%).

The other Labour candidate, Ivana Bacik, is at 8%.

In the East Constituency, Liam Aylward has a whopping 33% support level, leaving him well ahead of Avril Doyle (23%).

However, the Wexford MEP is well ahead of her running mate Mairead McGuinness and should easily secure the second seat, if the findings of the poll were to be repeated on polling day.

Fianna Fáil will be disappointed with its other candidate Seamus Kirk’s showing of 10%, which would give him little chance of securing a second seat for the party.

Labour’s Peter Cassells, with a strong showing of 14%, looks the favourite to take the third seat.

The Green Party’s deputy leader Mary White will also be disappointed with her figure of 6%.