Flu could cause 5,000 deaths

UP TO 5,000 people could die, with 14,000 possibly requiring hospitalisation when the next flu pandemic hits Ireland, health experts warned yesterday.

The health service, it emerged, is bracing itself for the massive epidemic by stockpiling enough antivirus medication to treat 25% of the population.

Experts also claim the next pandemic to hit the state could be any A1 virus, and not the current avian influenza.

A global flu outbreak could force 25% of the workforce in Ireland to take between five to eight working days off over a three-month period, while schools would have to close.

Speaking at the Joint Committee on Health and Children in Leinster Housetoday, Darina O’Flanagan, director of The Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC), said the service will be “hard pressed” but will cope when, not if, the outbreak arrives.

“Pandemic influenza poses a serious threat,” said Dr O’Flanagan. “The impact may be substantial causing significant disease, death and will disrupt the health service and society. “A/H5N1 is cause for concern, but the next pandemic could be caused by another A1 virus.

“An outbreak of avian influenza in poultry here will not necessarily result in human cases.”

Dr O’Flanagan said the HPSC (Ireland’s specialist agency for the surveillance of communicable diseases) was working alongside a range of national and international organisations to prepare for eventualities, including A/H5N1.

Despite reported cases of the deadly bird flu as close as Germany, Austria and Denmark, the Department of Agriculture and Food believes the risk of the disease spreading to Ireland was still low.

Nevertheless, Oireachtas members were warned that, while any pandemic would still have a massive impact on the health service, businesses, schools, the emergency services and industries nationwide would also be affected.

Dr O’Flanagan warned that the figures for deaths and hospitalised cases were a rough estimate and should not cause concern.

Department of Health chief medical officer Dr Jim Kiely said it was “only a question of time, not if”, before Ireland experienced a flu pandemic.

“It’s not inevitable that the pandemic will be the avian flu. The only certainty is that over a long period of time there will be a flu pandemic.”

Global flu epidemics in 1918, 1957 and 1968, have killed millions across the world. They arise - not always in winter - when a new strain of flu emerges. Public health expert Dr Kevin Kelleher said: “We want as many people as possible to be looked after at home in isolation. We want to reduce the number of people coming into hospitals. Cases in hospital will be isolated.

“The system is preparing and has been preparing for some time on this policy. We know when it happens we will be hard pressed and probably won’t cope because of the scale we are talking about.”