Sinn Féin, DUP gains a ‘return to the trenches’

THE Northern Peace Process was heading for political paralysis last night after Sinn Féin and the DUP made dramatic gains.

Sinn Féin swept the SDLP aside to become the largest nationalist party, while the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) moved ahead of the Ulster Unionist Party.

As counting continued last night in the 18 constituencies, a clear picture was emerging. Sinn Féin looked like increasing its representation in the 108-seat Assembly from 18 to 23, as the SDLP seemed like sliding from 24 seats to a possible 19.

For unionists, best indications last night put the DUP and David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) both on 27 seats. But with the surprise victory of Diane Dodds in West Belfast, the DUP may secure 28 seats.

Senior SDLP figures, clearly despondent, were last night predicting the result will lead to a period of paralysis in the North.

With at least six of the Ulster Unionist Party MLAs being firmly anti-agreement, the SDLP highlighted a majority anti-agreement block within unionism which will refuse to enter talks with Sinn Fein, now the dominant nationalist party.

While Sinn Féin's Gerry Kelly was last night insisting the DUP would realise it could progress without dealing with Sinn Féin, DUP leader Ian Paisley was adamant his party would not deal with them. The prospect of the year-long suspension of the Assembly being lifted is remote. If it were reconstituted, the Assembly would have six weeks to nominate a First Minister and Deputy First Minister.

Failure to agree would entail another Assembly election being called. With Sinn Féin and the DUP as the largest parties on either side, prospect of agreement is remote. The British and Irish Governments would have little appetite for repeating the entire electoral process SDLP party leader Mark Durkan described the results as Northern politics "returning to the trenches", acknowledging deep disappointment at the results. Sinn Féin made spectacular and unexpected gains. Philip McGuigan won in Ian Paisley's stronghold of North Antrim and former Lord Mayor of Belfast Alex Maskey looked certain to win in the affluent South Belfast constituency. The SDLP's only gain was in the Strangford constituency.

The UUP, while maintaining its representation, has a block of six anti-agreement MLA within its ranks. The smaller breakaway anti-agreement parties lost out heavily, as did independent unionists.

The only independent breakthrough was the shock victory of Omagh Hospital candidate, Dr Kieran Deeney in West Tyrone.