Dublin will be the bear pit of the next election

THE Irish Examiner/Lansdowne opinion poll gives further credence to the widespread view among political parties that Dublin will be the bear pit of the next election campaign.

From these findings, it looks like Labour, Sinn Féin and possibly the Green Party could make gains at the expense of Fianna Fáil and perhaps the PDs.

But Fine Gael’s poor showing of 12% in the capital suggests that the party will have its work cut out in reversing its disastrous performance in 2002, where the party returned only three seats in Dublin after losing six, including two in Dun Laoghaire.

The disappointing support levels for the party seem to show a reverse of the gains made in last year’s local and European elections in the capital.

FG strategists say that polls generally understate its standing among the electorate.

But even so, a 12% showing (compared to almost 14% in 2002) suggests that party will struggle to make the strong gains it set out for itself.

Fianna Fáil’s support levels in Dublin, at 34%, are down on 2002 and the party (which won four marginal contests on the northside, and two on the southside) looks like it will be under severe pressure to hold in Dublin North East, Dublin North, Dublin North Central, Dublin North West, Dun Laoghaire, and its second seat in Bertie Ahern’s Dublin Central constituency.

With its 17% showing putting it second only to FF in Dublin, Labour is well placed to make gains.

But one or two of the party’s northside seats could be under threat from SF and FG, including Dublin North and Dublin North West. As against that, the party will hope to hold and to gain in Dublin North Central and in several Southside constituencies, where its liberal image has a strong appeal for middle class voters.

Sinn Féin’s incremental rise is most evident in Dublin where it now commands 12% support. Though many of its voters are in the younger age categories (18-24) the Sinn Fein machine has already shown that it can persuade this cohort (usually slack voters) to turn out for the party in large numbers.

Polls have in the past slightly overstated SF support and realistically, on these findings, the best it could hope for would be three gains in Dublin (providing Mary Lou McDonald stands).

Fianna Fáil also records a remarkably high showing among the youngest voters (the 18-24 group). In the capital as elsewhere, this may flatter to deceive, given the low voting patterns of this cohort. Unlike SF, FF has not focused its energies to date on ensuring more of its younger supporters vote.