Fianna Fáil backlash unlikely from Munster

THE supposed major backlash against Fianna Fáil certainly isn’t apparent in Munster.

The party appears set to hold its own in local elections in the South constituency by taking 39% of the vote down marginally on 2002.

Nonetheless, there are worrying signs for Bertie Ahern in the results of the Irish Examiner/Prime Time opinion poll, conducted by Lansdowne Market Research.

Since the last general election, Fianna Fáil's support has consistently dropped in national opinion polls, from the 41.5% achieved when the party got back into Government in 2002.

Considering the prophecies of the party being down to its core vote, Fianna Fáil would be extremely satisfied to get 39% or thereabouts, although it is down on their 2002 tally.

Only 30% of those polled are satisfied with the way the Government is running the country, according to the poll findings, yet Fianna Fáil are still polling well above that.

Likewise Fine Gael would be pleased to get 30% of the poll in the local elections as it would mark a significant recovery from the 2002 disaster, which saw the party lose six seats in Dáil Eireann in the five counties making up the South constituency five in Cork and one in Limerick.

The party famously won 32% of the seats from 28% of the vote in 1999 local elections and could hold their own this time out in the South.

Nonetheless, Munster is a traditional stronghold for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, where both parties would be expected to fare well.

Unfortunately for the two main parties, there is no guarantee this result will be replicated across the rest of the country.

If the hammering isn't going to come in the South, it may well come elsewhere. The levels of discontent may well emanate more strongly from other quarters of the country, so there's no room for celebration yet.

Sinn Féin, in particular, and the Green Party to a lesser extent, can be confident of improving their current minimal representation in Munster by polling 8% and 5% respectively.

Set to be the big winners this time out, Sinn Féin appear to be picking up support from marginal drops by Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour and the Independents.

Scant evidence exists of a resurgence in the popularity of the Labour Party under Pat Rabbitte in Munster. Attracting 10% in the South constituency overall tallies with their national performance in 1999 and 2002. Labour tends to be stronger in urban than rural areas and the party will be hoping it won't affect the final seat take across the five counties.

Worrying for Labour is yet another opinion poll showing Sinn Féin gaining ground. Allied to the under-performance by Senator Brendan Ryan in the European elections, there is little cheer for Labour in these figures.

Yet again, the Progressive Democrats appear to be faring poorly, but the party is always only strong in specific key urban areas so won't be overly worried by getting only 2%. After all, the PDs only secured 4% of the national poll in the 2002 general election yet won eight seats to double their representation.

As ever, a great deal will depend upon turnout on the day, but the voting public in the South certainly doesn't seem ready to deliver a retaliatory blow to Fianna Fáil next month.