Five years of hope are stalled again

Political Reporter Fionnán Sheahan reports on the continuing deadlock in the peace process

HAPPY fifth anniversary to the Good Friday Agreement. With celebrations like this, perhaps it would have been better to let the occasion passed unnoticed.

Just when it seemed there might yet be another breakthrough in yet another crisis in the peace process, the entire thing collapses.

Instead of a new peace plan for the North, the blame game has recommenced and the optimism earlier this week of an imminent break in the deadlock proves unfounded.

Indeed the sceptics who said the visit by US President George W Bush and his involvement in the process, was nothing more than a charade to put a rose-tinted gloss on the Iraq war, have been justified.

According to President Bush, Northern Ireland could also serve as an inspiration to people in conflict throughout the world.

“You are proving old patterns of bitterness and violence, the habits of hatred and retribution, can be broken. Achieve the agreement because it will have an effect beyond Northern Ireland,” he said.

Not even all that rhetoric and Mr Bush’s heralded personal involvement made a shadow of a difference.

The eyes of the world were apparently on the North observing the success of the peace process there as a role model to be adapted elsewhere.

What does the world think of the Northern Ireland peace process now?

Although there were issues to be ironed out with a number of parties - chief among them centring on the IRA - both governments remained optimistic the blueprint could be published last night.

The Taoiseach warned the proposals would not be an easy option for any side. “We have done everything to bring this to acts of completion,” he said.

Not taking anything for granted, government sources admitted Mr Ahern and Mr Blair were not going to publish their joint proposals unless there was a realistic chance they would be accepted by the political parties.

In the end that caveat proved to be the ultimate deciding factor, as evidenced by the Government statement yesterday at lunchtime.

“The continuing discussions between the governments and pro-agreement parties have led the Governments to conclude that sufficient progress has not yet been made which would allow the holding of the meeting between the Taoiseach, prime minister and the parties later today.”

Irrespective of Sinn Féin’s outright opposition to the imposition of punishment for activities by the IRA, movement by the IRA was needed to restore the confidence of the Unionists in the agreement.

The IRA either had to state the war was over or engage in a public disposal of arms to show their belief there was no place for paramilitarism in the future of Northern Ireland.

The entire success of any deal hinged upon this act. Now yet another step on a highly sensitive path has been halted for the time being as frustratingly the efforts of Mr Ahern and Mr Blair were scuppered.

The publication of the document wasn’t so much the stumbling block but rather the expected subsequent response.

Ultimately the cancellation of the publication was unavoidable as there were severe doubts about how far the IRA was prepared to go. Obviously it wasn’t going to be far enough to bring the Unionists along.

The hopes of holding an election for the Northern Ireland Assembly at the end of May have now been dealt a blow, although there is a possibility enough may be salvaged in the short- term to go ahead with the election.

Absolving republicans of blame, Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams said the governments should publish the joint declaration and their other public commitments anyway but Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble said the peace process could not be held to ransom by the republican movement.

“Our position with regard to republicans was clear from the outset. They had to forswear violence, to wind up their paramilitary wing and to proceed to completion with the process of disarmament,” he said.

It is wishful thinking on Sinn Féin’s part to call for the IRA to be left outside the political process because as far as the other parties are concerned the IRA are an intrinsic part of the package.