Bruising eight months takes toll on Government

THE trend of dissatisfaction with the Government parties continues, with Fianna Fáil and the PDs recording their lowest rating since the local and European elections in June 2004, an Irish Examiner/Lansdowne Market Research poll shows.

Polls in October 2004 and June 2005 had put the Government's satisfaction rate at 43% and 42%, respectively.

The downward trend continues in this poll, with only 37% of those polled satisfied with the Government's performance. A further 42% were dissatisfied.

The Government satisfaction rating is now at its lowest since the 34% recorded in June 2004.

There was some good news for Taoiseach Bertie Ahern however, as this latest poll shows Fianna Fáil support at 38%, its highest support levels since February this year.

After a bruising eight months, the party seems to have emerged relatively unscathed from ministerial controversies, the row over the Morris report and the extraordinary impact of

Eddie Hobbs's Rip Off Republic series on RTÉ.

In contrast, the findings will be discouraging for Fine Gael, with the party garnering 23% support; and for the Labour Party, which attracts 12% support.

However, the Irish Examiner/Lansdowne poll also indicates that the next election may be a cliffhanger that results in a hung Dáil.

Only two percentage points separate the two alternative coalitions of Fianna Fáil and the PDs, and the rainbow combination of FG, Labour and the Green Party.

If the results of this poll were repeated in an election, FF and the PDs would win 43%, with the rainbow at 41%.

This is well within the margin of error of plus or minus 3%, which means the political balance of power remains delicately poised.

Translated into seats, it could result in a net loss of 10 seats for the Coalition, but not all lost to the main opposition parties.

The Greens will be buoyed by a 6% showing, which is a two-point gain from the General Election in 2002, while the PD support of 5% is like Fianna Fáil's higher than expected. Sinn Féin's support, at 10%, seems to have peaked though it is likely to make seat gains to bring its total near to 10.

The opposition will take succour from another key finding of the poll, which shows dissatisfaction with the Government (43%) clearly higher than its satisfaction ratings (37%).

And while Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's own satisfaction rating of 44% is five points higher than either FG's Enda Kenny or Pat Rabbitte (both at 39%), his dissatisfaction score is also much higher 36%, compared to 19% for Mr Kenny and 18% for Mr Rabbitte.

This suggests Mr Ahern's once-widespread appeal is now confined to government supporters.

PD leader Mary Harney and Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams have seen their ratings plummet, with more people dissatisfied than satisfied with them as party leaders.

Some 30% express 'don't know' with regard to the Greens' Trevor Sargent, indicating a profile deficit.

Brian Cowen and Mary Hanafin are considered by some distance as the most effective ministers, while the controversy-riven Martin Cullen is considered the least effective.

FG and Labour will also take comfort from the strong endorsement of the Mullingar Accord. That scores as the most effective coalition option among voters, marginally ahead of FF/PDs; the three-party Rainbow; and FF/Labour (the latter surprisingly attracts strong support from Labour voters).

There are equally divided views on SF. While a total of 52% would like to see the party in a coalition if all IRA activity has ended, some 39% oppose this happening under any circumstances.

The poll was conducted among a sample of 1,032 adults, representative of all demographic groups, on Tuesday and Wednesday last week.