Decline in radio listeners blamed on MP3s

CONTRARY to what a famous pop song of the late 1970s might suggest, MP3s rather than video may have killed the radio star.

Today’s Joint National Listenership Research (JNLR) figures will be eagerly scanned by station bosses and advertising professionals to see if a decline in radio audiences over the last year has been arrested.

There could be several reasons for the drop-off but many believe the popularity of MP3 players, like the iPod, is a key factor.

However, should an Apple a day automatically result in the medics being called to halt the terminal decline of radio stations? Or will they, like newspapers, be able to see off their predicted demise in the face of newer media?

Some critics argue many listeners are also switching off because it is becoming increasingly difficult to differentiate between the combination of music and chat on offer from the country’s 28 commercial radio stations.

Whatever the reason, JNLR figures released earlier this year showed a 4% decrease in overall radio listenership with just 85% of adults claiming to have listened to at least one radio service during the day.

However, Today FM chief executive Willie O’Reilly is a strong defender of the medium and points out that Irish radio remains comparatively robust when viewed against the performance of similar broadcasters across Europe.

“With the arrival of the internet, digital radio and other, new forms of audio entertainment, it is only to be expected that there may be some fall-off in radio audiences. It remains a fact that Irish people like their radio, regardless of what stations they listen to,” said Mr O’Reilly.

Crucially, advertisers are not unduly concerned about the future of the industry even though they acknowledge lifestyle changes and greater diversity for sourcing music made a drop listeners inevitable.

Managing director of Mindshare, David Sneddons, said: “It has appeared odd to me but audience figures have stayed remarkably consistent over the past 10 years. However, the advent of the internet and downloadable music is certainly having some impact.”

Although the Irish radio market might appear to be stabilising, the Broadcasting Commission of Ireland plans a further shake-up with the introduction of several new radio stations.

The BCI received a large response after it proposed a range of new licences for regional, youth-driven services.

It follows on the success of Beat FM, the country’s first regional service which is based in the south-east, after it captured an 18% market share since going on air in July 2003.

Although the additional choice might be welcomed by advertisers and listeners, existing radio stations will probably beg to differ. Most sense the sector is close to saturation, with new competitors only increasing the risk some struggling local stations could fold.

Director of advertising agency Initiative Media, Chris Rayner, said: “Regional stations are a perfect addition to the portfolio which we would offer to clients. They are a particularly attractive way of reaching larger audiences outside Dublin.”

However, Charlie Collins, chief executive of Highland Radio in Donegal, one of the most successful local stations, understands the argument there are too many licences.

“We have to ask how much choice do people need. If there is too much, it will eventually affect the quality of programming.”

Although more regional stations would impact on Today FM, Mr O’Reilly believes economic conditions are about as ideal as they could be for a new station but gives one caveat.

“There is always room for more choice, but the important question is can new stations fund themselves?” he said.

Although Dublin’s talk radio station, Newstalk 106 initially struggled in a crowded marketplace, its hiring of well-known figures like Eamon Dunphy and George Hook has finally helped it to build a regular audience. But it still depends on money from shareholder Denis O’Brien, and is understood to have pinned future hopes on winning the “quasi-national speech” franchise proposed by the BCI.

“Irish talk radio is certainly a viable option and any competition in the sector would be a great benefit,” says Rayner. However, O’Reilly predicts a national franchise for Newstalk 106 could prove to be “a licence to lose even more money.”

Inevitably, much media attention on the JNLR figures will focus on the performance of RTÉ.

Its dominant market share has been consistently eroded over the past few years (largely by local radio), but its status as market leader remains unassailable.

“Its audience might continue to drift away but it still offers a one-stop shop which few advertisers can ignore and which none of its competitors can offer,” says Sneddon.

Today’s figures will not provide any initial insight on the impact of Ryan Tubridy as replacement for Finucane. However, the survey of the listening habits of 15,000 people will for the first time also provide detailed information about the performance of individual local stations.

The results will also give rise to the predictable clamour of radio spin-doctors to trumpet their station’s performance.

But the results will also confirm that radio audiences resist change. Like newspaper readers, they are reluctant to try new “brands.”

“Not many people realise it but research has shown that 82% of Irish people listen to no more than two stations,” says Mr O’Reilly. “For example, if listeners of Gerry Ryan’s show want a change, they tend to switch over to Ray D’Arcy on Today FM.”