‘Monster’ El Niño threatens 'unprecedented extreme weather'

Ministers, officials, experts, and activists gathered in the Turkish resort city of Antalya on Monday for the first day of the major UN climate conference, where governments try to agree on climate measures to take and how much should be contributed.

Senior figures — including WHO director-general Tedros Ghebreyesus and the Cop31 president Murat Kurum — have called on this to be an “implementation” Cop, where actions are taken by countries to implement the climate change commitments made previously.

The electric age

Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said the world is getting “dangerously hot” and that “nations face a choice: Electric or shock”.

“Rewire the global economy for the electric age or accept ongoing fossil fuel cost pain for families, firms, and governments, and of course that includes health systems.” 

WMO secretary general Celeste Saulo said that only one in four health ministries take climate information into their decision-making, as she demanded that governments implement weather warning systems to “save lives”.

An update from the WMO published on Monday indicates that 2026 will be the 10th consecutive year of record ocean heat and one of the four warmest years on record.

It also said that this year’s El Niño, a natural phenomenon that influences weather events across the world, would be the strongest on record by the time it peaks in December.

This brings a greater risk of heatwaves, wildfires, and floods, and health-related impacts including poor air quality and the contamination of drinking water.

'Another record-breaking year'

“The science is extremely robust: Yet again, we are reporting a series of broken records,” said Ms Saulo.

She said that El Niño’s impacts on temperatures often carry over into the next year and so countries should prepare for “another record-breaking year in 2027”.

“This El Niño could be a good showcase of how we face collectively the risks that accelerate when extreme weather accelerates as well,” she said.

“El Niño will be a good example of where we are doing well and what we can do better.” Alan Dangour, director of climate and health at the Wellcome Trust, a health research foundation based in London, said El Niño would bring “unprecedented” weather events and health impacts.

“El Niño will show us what we’re heading into. We will see unprecedented extreme weather events, and we will see the health impacts, and we will be able to monitor them and measure them,” he said.

“Unfortunately, we will then be able to have a very good idea of the future that we’re heading into.” 

The foundation surveyed 1,000 maternal health professionals across five continents, and found that for every 1C rise in temperature, there was a 5% increase in premature births and a 7% increase in gestational diabetes.

Mr Dangour also said the idea that the world could adapt to a temperature increase of 2.8C was “extremely challenging” and “slightly unimaginable”.

He added: “The challenge is enormous and scary. If we really care about humanity, we will respond with everything we have to slow climate change and give us a chance, because we cannot adapt to an unmitigated future.”

Societal pressure

Oliver Schmoll, programme manager at the World Health Organization’s European centre for environment, climate change, and health, said during a panel discussion at the Irish Pavilion at Cop31 that heatwaves in Europe made it difficult for politicians to avoid taking action.

“The climate change agenda in many parts of the world is actually on the decline at the moment,” he said.

“But when it came to heat during summer 2026, all the politicians had to say something about it because the societal pressure was extremely high.

“So while the climate agenda as a whole is a little bit on the decline, the heatwave one is straight in the face of the citizens. This is where the political incentive is.”