Will we be able to travel abroad in 2021? We ask the experts

Thailand's open for business

“If we winter this one out, we can summer anywhere?” But fingers crossed that’s still summer 2021, right? After a hopeful pre-Christmas run-up, soaring Covid cases over the past fortnight have forced many holiday aspirations to make an emergency landing. 

So, for some sense of hope, this week I reached out to my travel writer colleague and aviation expect, Eoghan Corry for his 2021 hot take and ever-colourful insights. And first up was the billion Euro question of when we may see Irish consumers travelling en masse again?

“The odd thing is that it is not airlines, governments, health experts or vaccine salesmen who will decide when we travel again, it is the consumer,” he begins.

 “There are several scenarios that can pan out in coming months; from the consumer getting fed up and ignoring the health advice, to the much wished-for mass vaccination programme that achieves near-certainty that people can travel without catching the virus.” But amid this spectrum of scenarios, there is a sense that unprecedented airfare deals will help fast- track the industry’s rebound and kickstart people’s booking decisions.

“There will be price promotions we have not seen since 2009 and we could see fares as low as €1 to get things moving,” Corry predicts, while admitting that the promise of refundable tickets and one buck fares isn’t going to convince the Irish market alone.

“Uncertainty still beats price in the consumer mindset so we need a run of luck, vaccine related, to get people booking again. We need it early in the cycle, before Easter, if we are to save outbound travel for 2021, or more importantly, inbound travel — there are 200,000 tourism jobs at stake.” 

Tel Aviv coast view as seen from Jaffa. 

Watching the rollout — and efficacy — of the vaccines over the coming weeks will be gripping. For now, all eyes are on Israel, who currently boast the most effective Covid roll-out in the world with 15% of the population vaccinated. This week, Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he is expecting Israel to return to normal life within a matter of weeks, signalling global green shoots, albeit in distant parish. 

There are also signs that tourism is starting to recover in albeit pockets across the world; Machu Picchu reopened to tourists in November, Dubai has become a quarantine-free winter haven for the Insta-set, while Thailand, which has only recorded 9000 Covid cases (for a population of 70 million) has recently announced its reopening to tourists.

“It is no coincidence that Thailand is one of the long haul destinations that stuck to a pre-planned reopening date,” explains Corry. 

“It has low infection rates and has a huge market on its doorstep — China — where air travel has returned to pre Covid levels albeit for domestic flights.” He paints a different picture for closer to home. 

"Europe shares a dual crisis; case numbers that are causing it to bounce in and out of localised lockdowns, and a policy crisis, where countries agree to a co-ordinated approach to the virus and abandon it once the numbers look like rising.” 

Ryanair plane at boarding on Ciampino Airport near Rome. 

But fortunately, he predicts that Ireland’s robust aviation culture will offer it an advantage in ensuring myriad portals to overseas tourism once the market picks up. ”We have a golden ticket with two strong airlines, Ryanair and Aer Lingus, that will not only survive the crisis, but also continue to patriotically serve the homeland. But a paradox, is that airlines like Norwegian that were doomed before Covid, have muddled through with state aid and wangled out of the Covid crisis. Airline collapses, once the aid stops, will present opportunities for those with the lowest cost base; Ryanair and (fellow low-cost airline) Wizz will be big winners; losers will be Air France, Lufthansa and British Airways, with their dependence on long haul which will be slower to recover.” 

In fact, when it comes to the future and safety of flying, Corry holds as much confidence in the aviation industry than (Stephen Donnelly, avert your eyes) many other bodies. “The aviation industry is good at safety; flights kept going during H1N1 and Ebola while protecting passengers while air crashes have been cut to negligible levels. Health officials can learn a lot from them.” 

But the abiding message is that with some luck, faith (and indeed competence), we can still look forward to travelling soon. “Like youngsters on that first flight, we as airline passengers will have to relearn how to fly. It is an easy experience, albeit with a mask that must be kept on at all times — like a two hour strip to Aldi with sunshine at the other side. Once users learn that, the world of travel can start making dreams come true again.”