Esther McCarthy's Oscar predictions: Can Jessie Buckley do it? Who'll win best film?

In advance of the Academy Awards on Sunday, film writer Esther McCarthy runs the rule over the main categories

Thu, 12 Mar, 2026 - 21:00

Best Picture

Bugonia, Frankenstein, F1, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

More than 10,000 eligible voting members of the Academy of Motion Pictures, Arts and Sciences have, by now, cast their final ballots. Best Picture is voted for through a preferential ballot with members choosing in order of preference - it’s pretty much like the Irish general election system. It can make Best Picture tricky to call in a year where there aren’t any obvious frontrunners.

Irish eyes will be on Bugonia, Irish production company Element Pictures’ latest successful collaboration with filmmaker Yorgos Lanthimos, up for four Oscars including Best Picture. We can also stake a claim on Hamnet. As well as Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal playing Agnes and William Shakespeare as they navigate the loss of their son, there are at least three other Irish actors in the cast. It’s also co-written by Northern Ireland’s Maggie O’Farrell who adapted her own hit novel with Hamnet’s director Chloe Zhao.

After winning the Producers Guild Award - the closest union equivalent to Best Picture - One Battle After Another is regarded as a favourite. But it would be foolish to rule out Sinners which has a record-breaking 16 nominations this year, and is clearly broadly loved by the Academy.

Esther’s tip: One Battle After Another

The Contender: Sinners

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, Ryan Coogler for Sinners, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value, Chloé Zhao for Hamnet

Though Paul Thomas Anderson’s films including Phantom Thread, There Will Be Blood and Magnolia have made him one of the most respected filmmakers of his generation, he has never won an Oscar. Added to the strong reviews for One Battle, this makes him a firm favourite to bring home the director accolade on Oscar night. Chief contender looks likely to be Ryan Coogler following those 16 nominations for Sinners.

Esther’s tip: Paul Thomas Anderson

The Contender: Ryan Coogler

Actress in a Leading Role

Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue, Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value, Emma Stone for Bugonia

Jessie Buckley is regarded as a huge favourite to bring the highest accolade in film back to Killarney, and make Irish film history in the process. She’s in a strong position to become the first-ever Irish woman to win Best Actress at the Oscars, following Brenda Fricker’s memorable win for Best Supporting Actress for My Left Foot in 1989. Rose Byrne’s turn as a woman navigating major life events in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You appears the most likely contender. But with Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Screen Actors Guild Award wins for her work on Hamnet, this is Buckley’s time. Ciarraí Abú!

Esther’s tip: Jessie Buckley

The Contender: Rose Byrne

Maggie O’Farrell, Jessie Buckley, Paul Mescal and Chloé Zhao at the premiere of Hamnet at the Light House Cinema in Dublin. Picture: Andres Poveda

Actor in a Leading Role

Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme, Leonardo Di Caprio for One Battle After Another, Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon, Michael B Jordan for Sinners, Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent.

This is regarded as a race between Chalamet and Jordan, with the latter given the edge following his win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards - after all, the acting branch is the largest in the Academy voting membership. There is plenty of love for Chalamet, a four-time nominee who has yet to win. Irish eyes will be on Ethan Hawke for his role in Blue Moon, a US period drama filmed on location here.

Esther’s tip: Michael B Jordan

The Contender: Timothée Chalamet

Actress in a Supporting Role

Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass for Sentimental Value, Amy Madigan for Weapons, Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners, Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another.

Regarded as one of this year’s most-open contests, the sheer depth and range in this year’s supporting category would make every nominee worthy winners. The wind is in the sails of Amy Madigan following her SAG win for horror-mystery Weapons. But watch out for Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku, who could benefit here if One Battle or Sinners, respectively, take a sweep.

Esther’s tip: Amy Madigan

The Contender: Teyana Taylor

Actor in a Supporting

Role Benicio De Toro for One Battle after Another, Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, Delroy Lindo for Sinners, Sean Penn for One Battle after Another, Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value.

Skarsgard’s turn in Sentimental Value has earned him a lot of awards-season love, particularly early on. But fellow veteran actor Sean Penn has staged a late charge, winning BAFTA and SAG for his role in Paul Thomas Anderson’s film. There’s lots of regard among the Academy, too, for Delroy Lindo’s turn as a bluesman in the strongly backed Sinners, and he would be a very popular winner.

Esther’s tip: Sean Penn

The Contender: Stellan Skarsgard

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, It Was Just An Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners.

Ryan Coogler’s screenplay for Sinners has been steadily gathering momentum throughout awards season, most recently at the Writers Guild Awards, where it was a hugely popular winner. In fact, Sinners could do a big sweep on Oscar night - but this category feels like one of its safest bets for the highest prize in screenplay writing. The witty and wise Sentimental Value feels like its nearest contender.

Esther’s tip: Sinners

The Contender: Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

Lots of Irish interest in this category, with Maggie O’Farrell co-adapting her best-selling novel with director Chloé Zhao, and the Element-produced Bugonia in contention. One Battle After Another is regarded as a frontrunner here, with Paul Thomas Anderson’s screenplay picking up numerous awards, most recently at the WGAs.

Esther’s tip: One Battle After Another

The Contender: Hamnet

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

Irish special effects expert Richie Baneham. Picture: Matt Winkelmeyer/GA/The Hollywood Reporter via Getty Images

Could Tallaght’s Richie Baneham win a remarkable third Oscar for his work on James Cameron’s hugely successful Avatar series? The odds are certainly in his favour.

Baneham, who studied at Ballyfermot art college before working with a creative team in one of the biggest box-office hits in history, could make it three from three if Fire and Ash is victorious this year.

Esther’s tip: Avatar

The Contender: Sinners

Best Animated Short

Butterfly, Forevergreen, The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Retirement Plan, The Three Sisters

Irish filmmakers John Kelly and Andrew Freedman are in with a serious shout for Retirement Plan, an animated film narrated by Domhnall Gleeson in which a man ruminates about what he’ll do in retirement when he has the time.

It marks the latest stage in a remarkable run for director Kelly, whose seven-minute film has been beguiling audiences around the world. While France’s Butterfly is the frontrunner here, Retirement Plan has been steadily gaining momentum.

Esther’s tip: Butterfly

The Contender: Retirement Plan