Esther McCarthy's predictions for the Oscars: Anora or Conclave? Brody or Chalamet? Moore or Madison?
Conclave, A Complete Unknown, and The Brutalist could be among the winners at the 2025 Academy Awards on Sunday.
This year’s Best Picture contenders are a diverse bunch, featuring new and established filmmakers, comedy, horror, drama and an adaptation of a smash-hit stage musical. Interestingly, Best Picture is voted for through a preferential ballot. Voters choose their favourites in order of preference, much like the Irish electoral system. With the Oscars electorate now expanded to well over 10,000 members, Best Picture has become increasingly hard to call - especially in a year like this one, where there aren’t obvious frontrunners.
Netflix’s narco musical thriller is, on paper, the favourite, with the most nominations (13) of any film. But this hasn’t largely converted to Best Picture over awards season so far.
The biggest single voting body - actors - gave a late boost last weekend. The Screen Actors Guild (union) awarded Best Ensemble Cast (the closest category they have to Best Picture) to the Papal thriller. It also won Best Film at the Baftas. But , about a sex worker who falls for the son of a Russian oligarch, won big at both the Directors Guild Awards (DGA) and Producers Guild Awards (PGA) keeping it very much in contention. and will all fancy their chances in what is certainly not a year to put your savings on Best Picture.
Anora
Conclave
Sean Baker’s work on won him a significant top billing at the DGAs - the closest corresponding category. But this is a wider voting field, and a potential opportunity for the Academy to give a nod to , the tale of an architect who aims to rebuild his life escaping post-WW2 Europe for America. James Mangold, a long-established filmmaker bringing nuance to Bob Dylan’s story in A Complete Unknown, cannot be ruled out.
The Frontrunner: Sean Baker
The Contender: Brady Corbet
Demi Moore is a frontrunner in this category for her gutsy work on but do not rule out Mikey Madison, earning a lot of love - and a Bafta win which really shook up the Oscars race. Keep an eye, too, for Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres and her powerful work on , a film that seems to be steadily gathering both critical and audience momentum.
The Frontrunner: Demi Moore
The Contender: Mikey Madison
Irish eyes and the Irish film industry will be rooting for Sebastian Stan’s turn as a young Donald Trump in a film co-produced by Ireland’s Tailored Films. Adrian Brody has been gathering a lot of momentum for his work as a European architect rebuilding his life following WW2. But watch out for Chalamet, excellent as the young and feisty Bob Dylan, and a SAG winner from Oscar’s biggest single voting body.
The Frontrunner: Adrien Brody
The Contender: Timothée Chalamet
Despite this being a very strong category this year, Zoe Saldana, leaving it all on the dance floor in Emilia Pérez, has been winning all over the place. Following her award at actors union ceremony the SAGs last weekend, any other winner in this category would be regarded as quite the upset. The most likely competition would come from Ariana Grande, for her work on the popular and admired Wicked.
The Frontrunner: Zoe Saldana
The Contender: Ariana Grande
The many Irish people who worked on Irish co-production The Apprentice will be rooting for Jeremy Strong, but again, only one actor has been winning in this category from the outset. That is Kieran Culkin, by turns hilarious, difficult and in turmoil in Jesse Eisenberg’s excellent , the tale of two cousins who go on a memorable road trip. His wacky, off-the-cuff acceptance speeches have only endeared him further. On the back of his fine work on Succession, there’s a sense that this is Culkin’s time.
The Frontrunner: Kieran Culkin
The Contender: Guy Pearce
The wind seems to be behind the sails of , which has been steadily gathering momentum across a number of categories in the crucial final weeks of awards season. I’m rooting for Jesse Eisenberg’s wonderful screenplay for , a flab-free, note-perfect script that makes effortless gear shifts from hilarity to pathos.
The Frontrunner: Anora
The Contender: A Real Pain
Conclave is the favourite here for writer Peter Straughan’s ( ) ability to make a Papal election play like a real-time thriller. There is an elegance to the writing in , the story of Bob Dylan’s determination to follow his own musical path, that merits attention. Watch out for , a tale of a reform school in 1960s America, and a film that many feel isn’t getting enough awards love. This could be seen by the Academy as an opportunity to reward it - it also won in this category at the Writers Guild Awards.
The Frontrunner: Conclave
The Contender: Nickel Boys
A stellar year in a category that is always highly competitive, and the category in which Ireland’s Kneecap narrowly missed out on a nomination. Netflix’s has been a favourite, but love has been steadily growing for Walter Salles’ powerful tale of Brazil under dictatorship in . Its three nominations - including for Best Picture - show its popularity with voters. I think it can take the win.
The Frontrunner: I’m Still Here
The Contender: Emilia Pérez
What a spectacular year for animation, with any one of these worthy winners. The money is on the stunning and much-loved . I’ll be roosting for and that pesky Feathers McGraw.
