Beef intake forecast to drop by up to 90,000 head this year
The predictions are for the intake to remain tight for the remainder of the year, to show a forecast drop of 87,000-90,000 for the year as a whole.
Beef prices are holding steady at the factories this week and there has been a slight increase in supply, which continues to be seasonally very low.
The factories continue to struggle to source sufficient cattle to meet their requirements to fill the orders, with the outlook on supply for the remainder of the year not encouraging for the processors.
This is Galway Race Week, traditionally a time that many farmers take a few days' holidays, and the factories find it more difficult to maintain intake numbers.
Last week's intake at the factories was 24,502, an increase of 700 head on the previous week, but 8,300 head lower than the corresponding week last year. Total intake year to date is now at 971,566 head compared to 1,005,975 head for the same period in 2024.
Last week the intake was lower for all categories of stock, with total supply down 25.4% on the same week in 2024. Steers were lower by 24.6%, heifers back by 23.5%, and cows down by 32.4%. On a low base, the supply of young bulls was 2.4% lower.
The predictions are for the intake to remain tight for the remainder of the year, to show a forecast drop of 87,000-90,000 for the year as a whole.
This comes on the back of a significant change in the structure of the national livestock herd over the past decade, over which there has been a major swing towards specialised dairy farming and depletion of the suckler beef sector and an increase in live exports in 2023 and 2024, all culminating in the reduction of beef animals.
The CSO figures to June 1, 2025, showed a continued sharp fall in the suckler cow herd with a year-on-year decline of a further 44,840 head to 765,877 head, which is now less than half the size of the national dairy herd.
Not many years ago, the suckler cow and dairy cow numbers were close to parity, a ratio which has changed dramatically over the past decade since the milk quota was abolished.
The national dairy herd, which now stands at approximately 1.6m head, has experienced a decline of 37,432 head over the past year.
The general base being quoted for the steers this week is 750c/kg. Some of the factories have been reported as offering a base of 740c/kg without much success.
Heifers are generally on a base of 760c/kg, and the factories are trying to keep the lid on prices at this level, while under pressure to get sufficient numbers through their gates.
There is very strong demand for the heavy well-fleshed cows, in particular, with 720–730c/kg going for R-grade, and the young bulls are making par or slightly more than the equivalent grade steers on 750–755c/kg for R-grade.
