Kieran Coughlan: Input costs, politics and a turning point for farming?
On the positive side, costs seem to have stabilised both on the input and output sides.
Welcome to 2024, and a Happy New Year to all followers of the column.
It’s a new year and a new start. To be honest, 2023 was a bit of a drag - the weather, the prices and the regulations conspired to undermine much of the joy that can be mined from farming.
The turn of the year will see the season change and less than 20 weeks from now, the silage harvesters will be revving up.
For me, the sound of the engine throttling up and drum speed accelerating to what seems like an inconceivable speed continues without fail to be an adrenaline-inducing event.
Those days that come in March, April and early May where grass can be literally seen growing and that certain shade of near neon green that is only visible on those rare occasions where growth conditions and daylight patterns combine in a perfect way give me that injection of optimism for the year ahead.
The amusement of seeing cows and cattle exit the yard and return to grazing, hopping and leaping and galloping at top speed to the farthest point in the field, skidding with all four legs as they try to bring themselves to a stop is another one of those joyous moments that is like a well-kept secret known almost exclusively to farmers.
The election of Francie Gorman as a new President for the IFA and the changing of the guard in the other significant posts in the organisation will hopefully see an injection of momentum in such an important lobbying movement for farmers.
Similarly, the election of Derek Drennan to the role of president of the ICMSA will see him pressing his own stamp of influence and huge praise is due for his predecessor Pat McCormack for his trojan work representing farmers.
The next Irish general election will take place within the coming 15 months, which means that political parties jostling for position will be more likely in the period ahead to lend an ear to the farmers' plight, whether a farmer’s party of alliance comes to fruition or not.
On the positive side, costs seem to have stabilised both on the input and output sides, which gives some welcome degrees of certainty in determining what direction to take.
The year ahead will bring new challenges no doubt and there are no two years the same. It’s a good time to plan out the year ahead before one gets stuck in at the deep end.
The freedom that many of us farmers have without even realising it and that we sometimes don’t take advantage of, is that we don’t have to do the same thing we did last year this year.
For some of us, new rules mean we simply can’t do this year what we did last year as a result of the rule changes foisted upon us and that pushes us out of our comfort zone.
Sometimes a bad year highlights areas of weakness in a business and also forces one to take a more prudent approach to spending and investing which will in the long term serve to add to resilience.
A hard year can inject a dose of reality that improvements to our lot come slowly and as a business one should not bite off more than one can chew.
Similarly, a hard year can force us to change direction, diversify and perhaps become a little less reliant on the mainstream.
At a macro level, in the long term the fundamental prospects for farming must surely be good, the population of the world is estimated to have exceeded 8bn in 2023, up by nearly 2bn since the turn of the century.
That’s a hell of a lot more mouths to feed and the demand for food is clearly visible in food inflation experienced globally the past few years.
The average age of farmers in the EU and US farmers is estimated to be over 55, which means that natural attrition, along with recent changes in regulations, particularly in Western countries, will likely see a reduction in food production.
One can legitimately expect that a fall-off in production will see farm gate prices increase significantly.
The costs of getting into to an industry such as dairying will act as a barrier to new entrants and those who have toughed it out will reap the rewards.
Recognition came in 2023 from none less than the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation that meat, dairy and eggs are vital sources of protein, fats and carbohydrates, which are not easily found in plant-based foods. Maybe 2024 will be a turning point where farmers become a bit more valued.
