Imports of beef from Ireland to the UK slumped in January, according to British trade statistics.
Brexit trading difficulties are behind the 38% fall, which compared with only a 16% reduction in January, 2020, compared to January, 2019.
The UK leaving the EU has greatly disrupted the UK beef market, and inevitably has upset the import source most dependent on it, which is Ireland.
Nearly half of all Irish beef production goes to the UK.
Irish exporters will need the trading relationship to settle quickly, because the January fall from about 18,000t in 2020 to 11,000t in 20221 is not sustainable for the Irish beef industry.
The postponement of extra border checks from April 1 to later this year and to 2022 will help Irish beef exporters recover lost ground in the UK market.
When the overall fall in UK beef imports is analysed, Brazil is the beef source least affected, albeit supplying mostly processed beef and offal rather than prime beef, and with tonnages falling only 6%.
In contrast, the much bigger falls in shipments from the EU indicate that Brexit trading difficulties between the EU and the EU were to blame, with established UK-Brazil trading relationships relatively unaffected.
However, stockpiling of imported beef in the UK towards the end of 2020, in preparation for Brexit difficulties, was also a factor in the huge January slump in beef imports.
Statistical reports indicate that tonnages from Ireland, which supplies over 60% of UK beef imports, fell by nearly 40% in January, compared to 12 months previously.
Even worse affected were beef exporters to the UK in the Netherlands, with tonnages down 65%, and in Poland, down 46%, compared to the same month last year.
The UK’s total imports of beef (fresh, frozen, processed, and offal) in the first month of 2021 totalled about 16,000 tonnes, compared to about 26,000 tonnes 12 months previously, and about 31,000t in January, 2019.
The figures confirm the Brexit trading shock for Ireland’s beef industry, which has heavily relied on the fairly steady UK beef import demand, for 360,000 tonnes of beef and beef products on average from 2013 to 2017, with Ireland the dominant supplier, with 63% of the trade.
A proportion of these imports is beef produced in the UK but exported for further processing.
UK beef imports increased in 2018.
But in 2019, the pound sterling was weaker, there was weaker demand for beef in the UK, and increased UK production of beef, all of which resulted in Briitsh imports falling, and UK exports rising.
Import volumes fell about 17%, but with imports from Ireland down only 11% in 2019.
The fall in Irish exports of beef to the UK continued in 2020, but not as steeply, with the reduction of about 6% in the trade probably unavoidable, as the UK market endured rollercoaster consumer demand, due to Covid-19 lockdowns.
In fact, Irish shipments into the rest of the EU were hit even harder, down 9%.
For example, France took about 11% less beef from Ireland in 2020.
Irish exporters were helped by non-EU destinations such as the Phillipines, Japan, the US, and Canada, taking extra Irish beef in 2020, but it was not enough to offset reduced shipments elsewhere.
And then came Brexit, with the UK finally exiting the EU, after four and a half years of currency fluctuations and cliff-edges.
CSO figures (seasonally adjusted) confirm the magnitude of the Brexit shock for the entire Irish economy, with January 2021 exports to Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) down 14%, compared to January, 2020 (imports from Great Britain fell 65%).
The challenges of complying with customs requirements were a big factor, along with stockpiling of Irish goods in the UK, late in 2020, in preparation for Brexit. Covid-19 restrictions also affected imports and exports.
Unfortunately, the CSO figures indicate a disproportionate Brexit effect on trade in food and live animals, not unexpected because of stricter customs requirements for these commodities.
Exports of food and live animals to Great Britain fell by one-third, to €188 million; and imports slumped 75%, to €62 million.
The trade disruption was also evident from the UK side, with data from the HMRC indicating British exports of fresh and frozen beef were devastated in January, falling from 11,300t to just 2,200t.
Ireland is typically the largest export destination for British beef, but took only 200t in the first month of the year, down by 3,400 tonnes.
Can the UK-Ireland beef trade recover, and help processors pay the €4/kg base line price demanded this week by the IFA?
There are encouraging signs, not least that the currency exchange rate has settled for the past month at about 86p sterling for the euro.Â
And retail beef sales in Great Britain have performed strongly in recent weeks.
According to Kantar Worldpanel data reported by the Livestock and Meat Commission for Northern Ireland, the consumer spend on beef in England, Scotland and Wales during the 12 weeks ending February 21 increased by 15.8% year-on-year, totalling £1,152m.
Volume sales of beef were up by 12.7%.
Especially welcome for Irish exporters is the greatest proportional increase in terms of value sales during the 12-week period being recorded for steaks, burgers, grills, and marinades. Steak volume sales increased by 32.1%.
