Farming poll 2018: Results are finger on the pulse of the beef sector
With the beef sector and the suckler sub-sector struggling, goes through our poll results to discern farmer thinking on the road ahead for Ireland’s quality beef production.
The BDGP (Beef Data and Genomics Programme) is the least popular farm scheme among farmers, of the seven schemes they were asked about in the 2018 Irish Examiner/ICMSA Farming opinion poll.
It’s the third successive year of this poll that the level of satisfaction with the BDGP has fallen.
In 2016, the level of farmer satisfaction with the scheme stood at 43%, but that fell by 4% in 2017, and by 9% this year, to just 30% in the poll which was conducted from August 12 to August 26 last.
The proportion of those surveyed that are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the scheme increased by 3% this year to 23%, the highest dissatisfaction level out of seven schemes.
The number of farmers who don’t know their level of satisfaction with the scheme has also increased over the period 2016 to 2018, rising from 37% in 2016 to 48% this year.
It should be pointed out that only 70 of the 524 farmers surveyed participate in the BDGP scheme. So it is understandable that almost half (48%) don’t know how satisfied or dissatisfied they are with the scheme. However, of the 116 suckler farmers in the survey, three in five participate in the scheme. The BDGP is the core support scheme for the suckler herd.
Falling satisfaction ratings and increasing “don’t knows” could be explained by the requirements of the scheme, in particular, the deadlines for meeting scheme requirements.
Up to now, participants were mainly only required to record data such as cow milk yield and docility, calf quality and health issues, complete a carbon navigator, and complete a training course. Tissue tag samples were also required to be submitted for genotyping, but this October brings the first deadline for possibly the toughest requirement for most suckler farmers to qualify for BDGP payments.
Participants are required to ensure that 20% of their reference heifers and/or suckler cows are genotyped as four-star or five-star animals (on the replacement index).
By October 31, 2020, the equivalent of 50% of the number of the applicant’s reference animals must be four-star or five-star.
For herds whose breeding policy was traditionally based on breeding large, beefy cows, the number of animals in the herd that were four-star or five-star on the replacement index was probably low.
This has forced farmers to make considerable changes to their breeding policies, either purchasing four-star or five-star stock bulls to use on their cows, or using AI to breed four-star or five-star replacements. In some cases, farmers were also required to purchase four-star or five-star cows and heifers, in order to meet the requirements of the scheme.
This brought with it a considerable cost in some cases, and also may have brought about a change in the type of cow that farmers traditionally kept and were happy with. The participants who were required to make breeding changes may not be seeing any benefits yet from having a higher number of four-star or five-star cows in their herd.
So, the increase in the proportion of farmers who do not know their level of satisfaction with the scheme could be due to them waiting to see the impact, if any, of genotyping animals and having more four-star or five-star animals in their herd on animal performance and efficiency but most importantly on profit. After all, it is difficult to evaluate something without seeing its impact or end result.
So the 2018 Irish Examiner/ICMSA Farming opinion poll results are timely, at a pivotal juncture in the life of the BDGP.
Validation work undertaken by Teagasc and ICBF on 46 participating commercial beef farms over the past three years showed that five-star cows are more fertile, lighter (thereby requiring less feed), have more milk, produce a heavier carcass, and are more carbon efficient, compared to one-star cows on the same farms.
More specifically, ICBF reported recently that analysis showed the BDGP is leading to positive change in the suckler industry. Since the introduction of the scheme, ICBF says, their analysis shows it has led to improvement in key metrics such as the number of calves per cow per year, calving interval, and the age at first calving.
Carcass weights from suckler bred-animals have increased, with no decline in quality, over the last five years. In any case, it will be a number of years before the full cumulative effects of the scheme are seen — so maybe farmers are right not to make their mind up just yet.
The poll results indicate that participation in the scheme is highest among middleaged farmers, and farmers with fewer than 40 acres. Forty-five percent of suckler farmers aged under 35 do not participate in the scheme.
Interestingly, those categories who have the highest participation level in the scheme are also the most dissatisfied with it.
The higher participation among young farmers is understandable. They are more likely to understand the potential benefits from genotyping their animals, and are also less likely to dislike the data recording element of the scheme as much as their elder counterparts who, for the most part, would not be able to record the data quickly and easily online.
Lower satisfaction among younger farmers could be due to them expecting more than they get from the scheme, both financially and in terms of improved efficiency and performance in their herds.
The BDGP was launched as the scheme to bring suckler farming forward, create a positive outlook for the sector, and make it profitable and worthwhile. However, the future for the sector is anything but positive.
Many participants in the BDGP most likely participated in the previous suckler cow scheme. It is natural that they are less satisfied with the current scheme. Payment levels per cow were much higher in the previous scheme, there was less bureaucracy, and the measures participants were required to meet were quite easily achieved, and didn’t involve considerable expense or major changes to herd structure.
The BDGP has also not been without its issues. Delays in issuing tags for genotyping frustrated participants and led to additional labour and time, to tag animals that could have been tagged prior to the start of grazing, had the tags been delivered on time. There were also issues with participants not receiving full payments, due in part to the level of bureaucracy involved with the scheme.
The BDGP has also been the source of the greatest number of official appeals to the department by farmers unhappy with scheme penalties.
Low satisfaction in the poll is understandable when one considers the number of participants withdrawing from the scheme. In total, 3,247, 1,933 and 248 participants withdrew from the scheme in 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively, having joined the scheme in 2015.
Last year, less than 21,000 herds received payment under the scheme.
The previous suckler cow scheme had over 30,000 farmers participating in it.
But it’s most likely that dissatisfaction with the scheme is more due to poor sentiment in the suckler sector in general, rather than to scheme details.
The suckler cow sector is “at a critical juncture”, with a number of factors threatening its future development and sustainability, said Professor Thia Hennessy of UCC in her recent report. “Without positive action, it is most likely that these factors will lead to a contracting national suckler cow herd.”
She referred to threats on the horizon for the Irish beef sector, such as Brexit, international trade agreements such as Mercosur, and CAP reform.
Speaking at the recent ASA Conference, IFA President Joe Healy warned that “suckler farming is now on a cliff edge”, due to EU agricultural policy requiring farmers to produce beef at low prices, while reducing direct payments, and insisting on ever higher standards.
Joe Healy said a CAP move away from price supports towards direct payments has made beef farming extraordinarily challenging at current prices. At the same time, the EU Commission proposes further cuts of €100m per annum in CAP supports for Irish farmers.
Mr Healy said: “The Teagasc figures from Newford in Athenry, revealed at their open day, show that even the most efficient suckler farming model is not profitable. Yet the response from the Commission, in the latest CAP reform proposals, is to further cut direct payments and to ask European farmers to meet even higher standards.
“The new CAP must reflect the realities being faced by farmers on the ground.
“We need an increase in payments at least in line with inflation, not a €100m cut as currently proposed,” he said.
Despite the poor outlook for the suckler sector, when participants were asked what their main enterprise was at present and what it will be in 2025, only 3% less say they will be in suckler farming. Presently, 22% of those surveyed are suckler farmers, this will fall to 19% in 2025.
It is also interesting in the poll that seven out of 10 farmers currently participating in the BDGP intend to continue suckler farming at their current level, when the scheme ends (in 2020 for most participants). Those with larger holdings and older farmers are more likely than others to say they will cut back on cow numbers. It’s logical to expect older farmers to cut back on numbers, however it’s difficult to understand why 67% of under 35-year olds, and 82% of 35 to 44-year-olds would plan to continue suckler farming at the current level. Eight percent of under-35 year olds even intend to increase their level of suckler farming.
These figures indicate that suckler farmers are not continuing to farm solely due to their participation in the BDGP, and the loss of the financial support from the scheme might not lead to a large reduction in the number of suckler farmers.
The sector has ongoing problems with low incomes, sustainability and a total dependence on EU direct payments.
The outlook is also far from optimistic, but it seems that suckler farmers for the most part seem intent on continuing in the sector.
Many may have very few alternatives because their land type may not be suitable for anything else.
However, suckler farming is definitely “at a critical juncture” at present, and it’s difficult to see anyone with the option of switching to another farm enterprise staying on a “cliff edge”.
