Landowners’ last line defence against global warming
It will be mainly up to landowners to achieve the “negative emissions”, which are the aim of the countries with the most ambitious plans to reverse global warming.
Emissions going negative means more carbon is being removed than is emitted, in other words, remaining carbon sources are offset with new carbon sinks that remove climate-damaging GHGs from the air.
Most of the models envisaged by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to reach the Paris goal of keeping temperatures within two degrees Centigrade of pre-industrial levels assume GHG removal and negative emissions.
Therefore, curbing current flows of GHGs into the atmosphere is only the first phase.
Extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is the second phase, according to The Economist’s report from the UN’s COP 23 Climate Change conference in Bonn.
And the best way to achieve negative emissions is to grow plants, preferably trees.
Scientists estimate that an area somewhere between the size of India and the size of Canada needs to be newly afforested, the equivalent of between 23% and 68% of the world’s arable land.
This will require agricultural yields to be increased dramatically, so that farmed areas can be halved to make room for forests, while still feeding a world population at least 2bn higher than the current population.
Power stations could be fuelled by trees or other carbon sink crops, with the carbon-dioxide emissions from this bioenergy production injected into deep geological strata, rather than released into the atmosphere.
The Irish Government seems to be on the right track towards this long term goal, by actively supporting planting of trees, with a target to increase forest cover in Ireland from the current 11% to 18% by mid century, while rewarding farmers for good environmental practices, and bringing the latest innovative sustainability research and practices direct to farmers.
Establishment of over 300,000 hectares of forestry since 1990 has been supported.
This combination of measures curbs current flows of GHGs into the atmosphere and extracts carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Agriculture Minister Michael Creed says he is also cognisant of the requirement in the Paris Agreement which places an obligation on parties to foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development in a manner that does not threaten food production.
That will become the pinch point, if the world has to grow trees on former farmland, which seems the most likely path towards controlling climate change.
When that time comes, Ireland aims to be doing even better than its current global leader position for emissions per litre of milk produced, said Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment Denis Naughten at COP23.
Along the way, he says, Ireland will share knowledge with the global community from our “global first” programme of analysing the genetic make-up of beef-producing animals, for minimum carbon footprint.
In summary, agriculture has to get more efficient to make room for trees.
In this scenario, the tax on greenhouse gas emissions from farms which the Citizens’ Assembly recommended could be construed as punishment for the sector which could ultimately save the day, but which will need all the help going to play that role.
Irish farmers are already heading down that road, but will the Brazilians who replaced so much of their forests with soyabean and beef farms play their part?
