Harvest outcome of high yields and low prices
The Teagasc provisional cereal harvest estimate for 2015 is close to 2.5m tonnes, boosted by very good to excellent yields, breaking records on many farms.
With the main cereal harvest almost complete last week, Teagasc advisers reported excellent grain quality, “average” moistures and high hectolitre weights.
Unfortunately, prices remain depressed due to supply exceeding demand, and high worldwide stocks of small grains and maize. Prospects for cereal profitability in 2016 are poor, according to Teagasc.
The harvest estimate leaves total grain output down 3% compared to last year, with 14%-15% reductions in the main crops, winter wheat and spring barley, estimated at 570,000 and 992,000 tonnes of grain in 2015, respectively.
A 22% jump takes winter barley grain to an estimated 680,000t. Other crop estimates are spring wheat up 51% to 82,000t; winter oats up 15% to 101,000t, and spring oats up 39% to 86,000t.
Straw demand was significantly reduced in 2015, and a lot of it was chopped. “Take note of straw fertiliser values when planning fertiliser in 2016, and avail of any possible savings on P and K,” Teagasc advised growers.
Current grain price offers are below the cost of production, said IFA president Eddie Downey last week, who said the wind-down of cereal production would accelerate, with incomes “on the floor” for the last three years, reflected in the cereal area falling by nearly 90,000 acres.
Mr Downey said, “Some larger buyers are sending a clear market signal to growers that they are not seriously interested in the long-term viability of grain production, but are happy to sell inputs at prices that are unaffordable.
"These buyers are attempting to talk down the price as the harvest moves to a close, while many of the smaller and medium sized merchants in an attempt to support growers are paying €140/t for green winter barley at 20% moisture excluding Vat, €4-5/t under for spring barley, and €7-10/t over for winter wheat”.
