Stephen Cadogan: New rounds of talks could damage EU/Irish beef trade
The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has recommended reducing the Irish beef herd by 35%, and the dairy herd by 5.5%, to comply with EU 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets.
An analysis by Copenhagen Economics suggests the Irish beef sector could lose up to €45 million, if free trade negotiations with the US result in agreement (while the dairying sector may gain an estimated €90 million).
The EU is also negotiating on free trade with the South American countries that make up the Mercosur bloc.
That trade agreement would also damage the EU’s agricultural sector, according to a study from Wageningen University in the Netherlands.
It found overall economic impacts would be positive on both sides, but economic losses for the EU fall heavily on the agricultural sector. The EU’s meat sector would be the biggest loser in a Mercosur free trade deal especially the poultry meat sector.
It may all be academic, in view of the EU’s poor record in global free trade negotiations. The Mercosur negotiations have been stalled since 2006, having opened in 1999. Talks were re-launched in 2010, but there has been no significant progress since.
The negotiations with the US, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), have been hindered by the US Congress, but moves have now begun to give Presdent Obama a freer hand in the negotiations.
European Commission officials will travel this week for the ninth round of negotiations in New York, in the latest attempt at a bilateral trade agreement between the world’s two largest trading blocs.
The impact of a deal would be enormous for citizens, consumers and businesses. If the EU gets in sight of the winning post, with the badly needed overall trade boost it promises, EU beef production would probably become one of the sacrifices on the altar of free trade. After all, EU beef is not competitive on world markets, points out economist Alan Matthews in his authoritative capreform.eu blog.
He points out that beef production also contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, which the EU has pledged to reduce.
Under a TTIP agreement, EU beef production would be displaced by US production, thought to be equally carbon efficient, so global emissions might not increase.
So the EU might be prepared to sacrifice its suckler cows, despite its advantages of biodiversity, water management, and carbon storage, associated with permanent pasture and extensive grazing.
The importance of suckler cows in regions like Irish and French areas with limited production alternatives, where livestock are an important part of the economy, might also be forgotten.
