Prolonged drought puts Thailand’s rice, sugar, and rubber output at risk
The dry weather has already spread to 38 of 77 provinces since September, Anan Lila, secretary-general of the Office of Agricultural Economics said.
The minor rice crop that’s now being harvested may drop 12% to 10.74 million metric tonnes, said Anan.
The warning from Anan highlights the risks to agricultural output across Asia from drier-than-usual weather even before the possible onset later this year of an El Nino event, which can affect weather worldwide and parch Southeast Asia.
Forecasters in Australia and the US boosted their forecasts for the chances of an El Nino this week.
Thailand ranks among the world’s top two exporters for rice, sugar and rubber.
“If drought persists until the start of the planting season in May, it will delay rice plantings, possibly curbing output,” Anan said in Bangkok. Should an El Nino develop, that could cut rainfall, worsening the drought and hurting the farm sector, he said.
A prolonged drought in Thailand would lower the quality of sugar cane, cutting the crop’s sugar content, while also reducing the volume of rubber latex, said Anan. It would cut production from oil palms.
Dry weather devastated 329,978 rai (52,797 hectares) of rice land, equivalent to production of 195,301 tonnes, data from the office shows.
Damage to other crops is being assessed and revised output forecasts should be released in June, he said.
The chances that an El Nino will develop are growing, the US Climate Prediction Center said, boosting the odds to 65% from 52%. The probability is seen as over 70%, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said.
El Ninos, triggered by a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, can roil agricultural markets as farmers contend with drought or too much rain.
In Southeast Asia, the events can curb rainfall.
The last El Nino occurred in 2009 to 2010.
— Bloomberg
