British foot-and-mouth outbreak ‘will be small’
Professor Roger Morris of Massey University has developed software used by governments around the world to predict animal disease patterns.
His study of the latest outbreak indicated it will be very small — three farms at most.
He said the causative strain is the one that hit 2,500 British farms in 1967-68, the same strain used in vaccine production at a plant near the Surrey outbreak, and one only found in laboratories, not “in the field” anywhere.
“A notable feature of that virus was that it spread very well on the wind, whereas the virus that caused the 2001 outbreak didn’t,” Morris said.
“The wind patterns in late July fitted very well to suggest this virus could have been carried by the wind into the area of the affected farm. But it needs to be a large amount of virus, as a few virus particles aren’t going to infect cattle 5km away.
“The fact only cattle have picked up the virus also suggests it was wind-borne, as cattle are usually the animals that pick up the virus from the air, whereas pigs pick it up from eating infected meat,” said the New Zealand expert, who was consulted immediately by British authorities when the outbreak was first confirmed.
He said the clear symptoms in affected cattle and the quick actions of the farm owner ensured the disease was identified quickly.
The disease was first found in 38 out of 64 beef cattle grazing in a 30-acre field at Wanborough, Normandy, in Surrey, rented by Derrick Pride, 78, and his son, Roger. The location is about 5km southwest of the laboratories at Pirbright, the suspected source of infection. The Prides produce organic beef which is sold in their farm shop, about 10km away at Elstead, where the Prides live.
Authorities culled the Prides’ entire herd, along with susceptible animals in a neighbour’s field. Results revealed that one of the additional animals culled tested positive for foot and mouth, although it had shown no clinical signs.
Carcasses were then transported more than 100 miles in leak-proof lorries to an incinerator.
The Prides do not breed cattle, but authorities immediately acted to trace where they had bought cattle for fattening.
There had been only two cattle movements off the premises in the last month, for slaughter, and none on to it.
Four other farmers reported concerns about their livestock, but got the all-clear after veterinary checks.
The second case of foot and mouth was also found near Normandy, on Monday.
