Watching One51 should prove interesting
It's not all gloom however. It's good to see old stalwart Philip Lynch throwing shapes with the regenerated IAWS Coop, now One51.
Some in the marketplace are speculating about whether it will be Jerry Henchy in Dairygold or Mr Lynch in One51 who will make it to the market first.
If the signs are anything to go by then expect Mr Lynch and his new vehicle to hit the ground running within the next 12 months.
Company flotations are trickier and the level of scepticism has gone up since the time he brought IAWS to the market in 1988.
His stomping ground is different this time and the key focus going forward will be in wind farming and waste management.
Both are regarded as two of the greatest growth sectors around and it remains to be seen if Mr Lynch can do with One51 what he achieved with IAWS Plc.
However, given his legacy to IAWS Plc his new venture backed as it is by practically every co-op in Ireland will continue to get our attention in the years ahead.
It is fair to say that in One51 he is faced with a different animal and it will take some beating into shape.
His quest for SWS is history at this stage and was not an auspicious start.
However, he has shown in the past he could do it with the Plc. He has a track record and his strategic purchase of Cuisine de France marked a turning point for the Plc.
Mr Lynch also had a very good team around him in the Plc and building up the executive strength in One51 will take time.
Identifying a target that will be a watershed investment à la Cuisine may be more difficult to do in the areas of wind energy and waste management however.
Cuisines opened up a vista few would have imagined and put a fire under the group.
To say it was transformational is an understatement.
In that context it is harder to see One51 doing the same thing with a waste company or a wind farm. But let nobody doubt Mr Lynch's commitment to getting this right.
His biggest fans are already suggesting his 26% stake in NTR Plc is the smartest thing he ever did.
That will remain to be seen, but in buying into NTR, which has significant wind and waste management interests under development, he was certainly nailing his colours to the mast.
Whether he was trying to nail NTR to the floor is a matter of opinion, and the strategy of buying 26% still perplexes some.
Skeptics say the deal will overhang the market in any flotation and that selling shares would dilute the worth of the investment to One51.
By the time he gets to selling off the business however, the capital gains and the dividend payout will have more than compensated the group in the end and it may well be that Mr Lynch was far smarter than many imagined.
Again this will be a talking point and it will be interesting to see what stance investors will take when he tries to raise several hundred million to buy businesses that will give him scale.
Personally the guy is running out of time if retirement is still compulsory at 65 but that could be an added catalyst. It may force him to achieve more in a shorter space of time than might otherwise have been the case.
That of course could lead to pressure deals that could derail the group early on and leave One51 is a bit of a mess with somebody other than Lynch having to pick up the pieces.
However that is pure conjecture. The bottom line is he has identified key sectors of the economy that offer huge potential.
That's the easy part, though. Watching him put a new dynamic organisation together in the coming years should prove very interesting however and his boldness looks like it is gathering support.
