No Ukraine grain imports this year
"By Christmas, the UK could well have exported 1.5m tonnes of wheat," said trading director David Sheppard of Gleadell, which had 10 vessels loading wheat for export last week, mostly to the Continent, where the heatwave has knocked 5.7% off recent grain yield forecasts .
However, Irish buyers have shown no signs of market nerves, with Dairygold Co-op announcing interim grain prices of €93/tonne for feeding barley, €110 for malting barley, €100 for feed wheat and €90 for oats, exclusive of VAT.
According to Paddy Harrington, IFA grain chairman, the co-op's green wheat interim price is €32 to €34 below the dried grain price.
Dairygold's interim prices include a €6 per tonne premium, payable to all grain suppliers who purchased inputs from the cop-op worth 25 cent per tonne of green grain supplied.
In 2002, 95% of the grain supplied to the co-op qualified for this top-up.
"The full price for this year's grain will be determined in line with market value and paid when the harvest is complete", said a Dairygold spokesperson.
* Grain imports from the Ukraine, which held EU prices down last year, will not be a factor this year.
Wheat production in the former Soviet state topped 20 million tonnes last year, but will only reach 5 million tonnes this year, virtually erasing the country's ability to export wheat.
Irish farmers feared last year that imports from the East could eventually put EU cereal growers out of business.
But weather conditions have intervened to hit world grain production, leaving bouyant market conditions.
Canada and the EU, two major wheat producing regions, have been hit by drought. EU wheat exports are expected to fall to a record low of 10.5m tonnes, as the continental heatwave knocks 5.7% off the harvest.
Future prices for French wheat rose to €126.25 a tonne early this week, as demand was spurred by predictions of EU maize yields also being badly hit by scorching temperatures.
The wheat harvest in Europe is completed. While the quantity may be down on last year, the quality is good.
A 94.5m tonne wheat crop is now projected in the EU, down from the 99.5m tonnes forecast last month. Total EU grain production is forecast at 197m tonnes; consumption is pegged at around 192m tonnes.
Grain market watchers do not expect any extra measures, such as an export tax, when the EU's grain management committee meets today even though the committee's suspension of export tenders in late July had little effect on market trends.
