Walsh refers study on CAP reforms
Mr Walsh welcomed the publication of the FAPRI-Ireland study, which he had requested.
It examined the effects of the European Commission's proposals for the Mid-Term Review of the CAP and for the current round of WTO trade negotiations.
The FAPRI-Ireland Partnership is comprised of Teagasc, a consortium of Irish Universities, and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri in the USA.
The purpose of the partnership is to conduct timely and relevant analysis of changes in agricultural policies and markets.
FAPRI-Ireland published a study in January examining the effects of one aspect of the MTR proposals only the Commission's plan to decouple direct payments to farmers. The latest study, published last week, takes account of the full MTR proposals, and proposals submitted to WTO by the Commission.
Minister Walsh said this independent study confirmed that the MTR and WTO proposals have important implications for Ireland.
Irish beef and sheep production would decline by 6% and 5% respectively, as a result of a reduction in the suckler cow and ewe numbers.
"However, following an initial price decline, beef and sheep prices would increase by 2012 to a higher level than would otherwise be the case (beef prices 9% higher, sheep prices 13% higher than the baseline). Irish milk prices would fall by the full 10% price cut set out in the Commission's MTR proposals, although there would be compensation in the form of increased dairy premia and milk quota.
The effect on the cereals sector would not be significant.
Overall, there would be a reduction in the output value of agriculture, but this would be offset by a reduction in input costs.
FAPRI-Ireland concluded that the Commission's MTR and WTO proposals would result in aggregate farm income at the end of the study period (2012) around 8% higher than would be the case if there were no policy change or trading environment changes.
Minister Walsh said the proposals would have significant effects on the structure of farming.
The number of part-time farmers is projected to be higher and the number of dairy producers is expected to fall significantly.
