ESRI revises house completion predictions up for 2025 but down for 2026

Government must decide priorities for sector amid capacity constraints, says report

The ESRI has revised its annual forecast for housing completions upwards to 35,000 for 2025 but revised down its forecast for 2026 completions to just under 36,000. Picture: Dan Linehan

The Government must make hard choices on housing policy amid an 80% fall-off in commencements, a “rapid fall-off" in apartments, and a construction industry at risk of overheating, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has warned.

In its quarterly economic commentary for autumn 2025, the ESRI revised its annual forecast for housing completions upwards to 35,000 for 2025, after second quarter housing this year saw a welcome increase to 9,200 completions. However, the ESRI revised down its forecast for 2026 completions. “We are raising our forecast to over 35,500 units for 2025, but lowering our forecast for 2026 to just under 36,000,” the ESRI report said. “The outlook beyond the forecast horizon appears to be weakening with falling planning permissions and low commencements.”