Analysis: The jump in the unemployment rate may be a warning light for the economy

The worry is that this might just be a sign of things to come.

The Department of Finance estimates that the 15% tariff will result in up to 70,000 fewer jobs being created over the next five years. Picture Chani Anderson

By all measures, the Irish labour market has been remarkably resilient. For well over three years, the economy has been operating at near full employment, all the while weathering surging inflation, rising interest rates, and a resulting cost-of-living crisis.

Throughout all of this, the unemployment rate remained consistently low. Between January and June this year, the monthly rate remained very steady between 4.5% and 4.6%. However, a sudden jump to 4.9% in July spooked economists, with some already sounding a note of warning over what this could mean for the economy.