Nearly 40% of people expect economy to be weaker by 2030 

Consumers concerned about tariffs, infrastructure shortfalls and cost-of-living pressures, according to new research

Just over one-third of households, 34% in the Republic, expect their incomes to be higher in 2030, with 29% of households anticipating a drop.

A significant proportion of Irish consumers, both north and south of the border, are pessimistic about the longer-term economic outlook, with nearly 40% expecting the economy to be in a weaker position by 2030, a new research shows.

According to new consumer sentiment research, undertaken by Core Research on behalf of credit unions north and south of the border, 38% of consumers in the Republic of Ireland, up from 33% last year, expect the economy to be weaker in 2030, while just 29% expect it to be stronger, and 28% expect it to be similar.

In Northern Ireland, 37% expect the local economy to be weaker in 2030, while 27% expect it to be stronger.

The research, authored by economist Austin Hughes, found consumers in the north and south were broadly aligned in a sense that economic and financial conditions may be quite challenging for the next five years, as increasing concerns around tariffs, infrastructure shortfalls and cost-of-living pressures weigh on sentiment.

Mr Hughes said this special survey asked consumers to look beyond the short-term and consider their longer-term outlook on a range of key variables such as economic activity, employment, inflation, house prices and household incomes.

He said the results marked a “notably poorer outlook than that seen in recent years, when slightly more consumers envisaged a better rather than a weaker future”.

Our sense from the demographic profile of responses is that a range of factors, including a more challenging global backdrop, coupled with ongoing financial strains and infrastructure difficulties are weighing on consumer thinking in relation to the future.

“The survey would seem to suggest that consumers think tariffs are not the only test we face in keeping the Irish economy on a strong growth path,” he said.

A large segment of those surveyed, 37% of people in the republic and 39% of people in the north, expect the job market to be weaker as well.

In terms of household income, just over one-third of households, 34% in the Republic, expect their incomes to be higher in 2030, with 29% of households anticipating a drop. In Northern Ireland, consumers are marginally more positive about the outlook for their household income, with 31% expecting higher incomes versus 23% expecting a drop.

Mr Hughes said one consideration for consumer optimism around their income may be that they “may not feel their own personal or household financial circumstances are entirely dependent on the ‘macro’ economic environment”.

“Traditionally, this group would include those relying on welfare payments or those moving toward retirement, as well as a notably smaller cohort at the top of the income spectrum.” 

A significant majority, 63% of people, expect inflation to be higher in five years' time, while 22% are expecting similar levels to what they currently are.

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“The negative view on inflation was broadly shared across all demographic groups, but tended to become notably more pronounced with age and with difficulty making ends meet,” Mr Hughes said.

David Malone, chief executive of the Irish League of Credit Unions, said while consumers in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland were understandably concerned about a troubling global economic outlook, “the expectation of a modest improvement of incomes and higher house prices suggests many consumers see a future of opportunity as well as challenge”.