Estate agents forecast Irish house prices will rise 6% this year

Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland says undersupply of homes will remain the dominant issue until annual completions exceed 40,000

A year ago, 40% of agents identified the lack of supply as the main issue affecting price movements, now that number is around 60%.

Estate agents are forecasting a 6% rise in residential property prices this year, up from a 4.5% forecast last summer.

The Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) published its annual review and outlook today, which saw three out of four agents reporting low stock levels and 60% saying that the lack of supply is the main driver of price inflation.

The survey of 134 estate agents across the country also found that 83% now believe current property prices are either “expensive” or “very expensive”.

The group’s vice president, Gerard O’Toole, said current rates of property inflation — which the CSO estimates at 10% — are unsustainable: “Given the affordability challenges facing all buyers, particularly first-time buyers, a slowdown or period of market stabilisation would be welcome.”

The CSO said 21,664 new homes were completed in the first three quarters of 2024, with final-quarter data to be released on Thursday. 

However, the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland said the lack of supply will remain the dominant issue until annual completion levels are ramped up to more than 40,000. Mr O’Toole said: 

A year ago, 40% of agents identified the lack of supply as the main issue affecting price movements — now that number is around 60%. 

“That and the fact 76% of agents are continuing to report low stock levels reflect the reality of the Irish property market.

“The other main factors which our members believe are influencing price movements include lower interest rates and the availability of credit (12%), access to schemes supporting house purchases such as Help to Buy (8%), and changes in the state of the economy (8%).

“53% of agents report a slight improvement in credit conditions and believe this was the main factor impacting the higher than anticipated price movements in late 2024.”

Affordability of homes

The group also carried out research on home affordability across five counties for a couple earning a combined income of €107,000 and availing of the Help to Buy scheme towards their 10% deposit. 

It found that buyers could afford a three-bed semi in Cork, Galway, and Meath, but would face shortfalls of €13,900 in Kildare and €35,500 in Wicklow.