Trade war warning for Britain: 'Targeting a Monaghan chicken is the same as targeting a Tyrone chicken'

A trade war between the UK and the EU could see the Irish economy become 'a hostage to the cycle of toxic British politics'.

Trucks leaving Larne Port. Economist Jim Power said Britain targeting specific products would likely backfire on the London government, because goods in the North would also be affected

Britain will likely target specific Irish food and agricultural products and disrupt trucks at Holyhead in Wales for exporters accessing the continent, in any long drawn out tit-for-tar trade war, Irish experts have warned.   

Edgar Morgenroth, professor of economics at the DCU Business School, said that Britain would be looking to target products from ports in the Republic of Ireland under any collapse of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) that the UK and EU signed less than 11 months ago. 

However, Mr Morgenroth said any tit-for-tat tactics used by London against specific food goods from the Republic would likely backfire, because the UK does not understand the nature of the all-Ireland supply chains that bind products north and south.  

He said Britain would favour a long, drawn-out trade war similar to the now resolved dispute between the US and EU under the Trump administration that ensnared products as diverse as Kerrygold butter, French wine, and bourbon.                    

He said he believed Britain would not risk a tit-for-tat trade war before Christmas because it would inevitably lead to more significant and unacceptable shortages on the shelves of supermarkets in Britain.

Ireland is a soft target, and I wouldn't be surprised if we got hit harder than France," he said, referring to the potential fallout of any tit-for-tat war.  

Economist Jim Power said Britain targeting specific products would likely backfire on the London government, because goods in the North would also be affected because of the complex and deep supply and logistics chains across the island, in many products.

"Targeting a Monaghan chicken is the same as targeting a Tyrone chicken," Mr Power said, adding that any targeting by Britain would have the same effects in a trade war on goods in the North. 

"Northern Ireland has had the best of both worlds," he said. "That is demonstrated by the north and south trade so quickly growing since the end of last year. 

Northern Ireland being taken out of the single market would be disastrous for the region."

The trade war makes "no sense whatsoever" in economic terms for Britain, he said. Unfortunately for Ireland's economy, once a hostage to the British economic cycle and sterling, "we are now a hostage to the cycle of toxic British politics", he said.      

Aidan Flynn, general manager at the Freight Transport Association Ireland, said Holyhead will likely be the frontline should Britain target Irish goods, because it serves as a major landbridge port for exports from Ireland travelling by truck down to the Channel ports. 

Any sudden general blockage would have a direct impact on Britain supply chains and food in British supermarkets "overnight", and he suspects that Britain would attempt to target certain consignments only in any trade war.      

Mr Flynn said it was not in Irish interests for the EU to retaliate hugely, should the TCA break down.

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement, signed at the 11th hour in December to prevent the hardest of hard Brexit outcomes, was, as its name suggests, supposed to be developed by both blocs, he said.