'Recovery of aviation by 2023 too optimistic'

Chair of the DAA says hubs, airports, and low-cost airlines will recover sooner

Basil Geoghegan said traffic levels were back at 50% of pre-Covid levels. 

The chairman of the Dublin Airport Authority, which operates Cork and Dublin airports, has told an Oireachtas committee that forecasts of recovery in the aviation sector by 2023 are too optimistic.

Speaking before the transport and communications committee, Basil Geoghegan, who has been reappointed as chair of the State airport operator, said 2025 was a more realistic forecast but said large hub airports and low-cost airlines would recover quickest.

Speaking about the recovery following the lifting of Covid-related travel restrictions, Mr Geoghegan said traffic levels were back at 50% of pre-Covid levels. 

"Europe is back at higher levels but Europe opened earlier so there is a competitive challenge there as others got out of the gate earlier," he said.

However, he said he expected strong return of growth at Dublin and Cork where a major runway reconstruction project is currently underway. 

"I still believe that the proposition at Dublin and Cork is as strong as it ever was and that we will get back to those levels and beyond in due course. 

"For example at Cork, we are going to be back next year at a higher number of airlines than we had before. The number of destinations may not be the same but we are driving back there."

"Our airline customers are very mobile with their aircraft. You saw that with Aer Lingus moving to Manchester because they felt they could fly full planes out of there. 

"If you look at the airport in the north they picked up far more flights because people couldn't fly out of Dublin, Cork or Shannon. 

"Many of those have now been reversed and are seeing them come back. We think we will be as competitive as we ever were."

Asked about a full recovery of the industry back to 2019 levels, Mr Geoghegan said: "I think the optimists thought it was 2023. I think it's probably 2025 to think about."

The DAA cut significant costs last year when restrictions were first introduced. 

In 2019 Cork and Dublin handled a record 35.5m passengers. 

Last year, this number had plummeted to just under 8m. 

Mr Geoghegan said passenger numbers needed to be at the high 20m levels to be back making a positive profit.

The chair used his opening address to the committee to call for new air charges saying the current rates were too low when compared with European competitors. 

The current landing charge at Dublin Airport was reduced by the Commission for Aviation Regulation in 2019 from €9.50 to €7.75.

Mr Geoghegan said the price reduction was under the assumption of expected growth but that the pandemic meant the data is operating within a "fundamentally flawed pricing structure".

"Our business simply cannot countenance a third year of enforced below-cost prices and regulatory inaction," he said.

"We would like to see charges calculated on the basis of the current reality rather than a very optimistic 2019," he told the committee.