Ryanair profits fall by 34% as Iran war uncertainty drags on

Europe's largest airline by passenger numbers reported an after-tax profit of €538m - down from €820m for the equivalent period in 2025

Ryanair warned on Monday that its average summer fares looked set to be down on last year amid uncertainty around the Iran war, as it reported after-tax profit for the low-cost airline's April-June quarter fell short of analyst forecasts.

Ryanair warned on Monday that its average summer fares looked set to be down on last year amid uncertainty around the Iran war, as it reported after-tax profit for the low-cost airline's April-June quarter fell short of analyst forecasts.

Europe's largest airline by passenger numbers reported an after-tax profit of €538m in the three months that ended June 30 - down from €820m for the equivalent period in 2025 - for its fiscal first quarter through June 30, compared with a forecast of €579m in a company poll of analysts. 

The weak results for Ryanair, Europe's largest airline by passenger numbers, are the latest sign that the five-month-old Iran war is being felt more keenly by companies as peace talks drag and oil prices remain elevated.

"The price of our 20% unhedged fuel doubled in the quarter and fares fell 6%, primarily we think due to the impact of the Middle East conflict" and the timing of Easter, chief executive Michael O'Leary said in a video presentation.

"Despite a recent, slight, uptick in volumes, and less price stimulation, Q2 pricing is trending modestly down year-on-year," he added. At its last quarterly results in May, Ryanair said fares could be broadly flat between July and September.

Citi analysts said in a note that the airline's shares looked likely "to open down a low-mid-single-digit-%" following the miss.

Weakness in fares is likely to be short-lived, however, as European aviation is facing a wave of consolidation and airline failures that will take out capacity, chief financial officer Neil Sorahan said.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see a number of casualties this winter ... there's a few people very much on the edge," Mr Sorahan said in an interview.

He said he expected "significant capacity" to be cut in Europe this winter, "which could be positive for pricing," and a lot more may be taken out in summer 2027.

The possible sale of British rival easyJet, which is the subject of a bidding war, could also lead to a reduction in capacity and could trigger a "domino effect" of consolidation in Europe, Mr Sorahan said.

Reuters