Estate agents expect house prices to increase by 5% over the next 12 months

A couple with a joint income of €107,000 does not earn enough to buy average three-bed home in four of the five counties studied

A report from the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland found than 70% of estate agents are reporting low supply levels with over half, 51%, citing low supply as the main drive of price inflation.

Estate agents across the country expect national property prices to increase by a further 5% over the next 12 months as the chronically low supply of new and second-hand homes leads to levels of price hikes that are “just not sustainable”, a new report has found.

According to the residential mid-year market monitor of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI), 70% of estate agents are reporting low supply levels, with over half (51%) citing low supply as the main driver of price inflation.

It found that three in five estate agents believe that while prices are increasing, they will level off soon, with a further 18% saying prices have already peaked.

SCSI president Gerard O’Toole said the low stock levels of new and second-hand homes is “underscoring the persistent challenge of limited supply in the market”.

“With the Economic and Social Research Institute forecasting that 37,000 new homes will be built this year, well short of the Government’s target of 41,000, the urgent need to address infrastructural shortcomings and for the Housing Activation Office to become fully operational as soon as possible cannot be overstated,” he added.

Figures published last week by the Central Statistics Office show that just over 15,000 new homes have been built during the first half of the year. Between April and June, 9,214 new homes were delivered.

While this may be 35% higher than the same period in 2024, it shows completions are likely to come in under the Government’s target.

Mr O’Toole said 88% of estate agents believe property prices are expensive or very expensive, “the highest figure we’ve recorded”.

“We have had 12 years of continuous price growth and the level of increases we have seen in recent years is just not sustainable,” he added.

Joint income of 107,000 not enough

The report shows that affordability challenges continue to intensify for first-time buyers.

As part of the report, the SCSI included five scenarios involving a couple earning a combined income of €107,000 in the latest monitor. It looked at five counties: Cork, Wicklow, Kildare, Galway, and Meath.

It showed that a couple who wants to buy an averagely priced new three-bed semi-detached home, and who has the 10% deposit having availed of the help-to-buy scheme along with savings, would be able to afford to buy in only one of the five locations — Cork. 

The couple would see a shortfall of €65,200 if they wanted to buy in Wicklow and a shortfall of €22,000 in Kildare. In Galway, the shortfall would be €8,500, while in Meath the shortfall would be €5,800.

Mr O’Toole said that while a three-bed semi-detached home is affordable in Cork “and buyers with additional savings beyond the 10% loan-to-income limit should be able to overcome the gap in Meath and Galway”, homes in Wicklow and Kildare “remain totally out of reach for people on these salaries”. He said: 

In addition, there are thousands of people on lower salaries who will not be able to buy and will require support.

Mr O’Toole said the findings highlight the “persistent structural barrier” that exists to home ownership even for dual-income households in stable jobs.

He added: “It also underscores broader concerns around housing sustainability, increasing commuter burdens, and the potential impact on quality of life.

“While the increased budget for housing and key infrastructural projects announced last week in the revised National Development Plan is most welcome, the success of the plan will be measured by target delivery. That is the litmus test of any plan,” he added.

The SCSI’s residential market monitor is conducted jointly with the Central Bank of Ireland.

The survey was conducted between June and July, and received 175 responses from estate agents.