Lisa Foley: Challenges intensify for renewable energy generation despite progress

Recent analysis by Cornwall Insight suggested that the Island of Ireland will narrowly miss this 80% target with our report forecasting 74% by 2030.

Sun, 11 Aug, 2024 - 18:00

Lisa Foley

Ireland has renewable electricity targets for 2030 set out in the Climate Action Plans since 2021 of 9 gigawatt (GW) of onshore wind, 5GW of offshore wind and 8GW of solar. There is a specific target of 80% share of electricity generation supplied by renewable sources by 2030.

In 2023, 42% of electricity generated came from renewables meaning a fundamental shift in how we develop and operate our electricity system has been and continues to be needed.

Recent analysis by Cornwall Insight suggested that the Island of Ireland will narrowly miss this 80% target with the report forecasting 74% by 2030.

We have experienced significant expansion of our renewable electricity fleet in Ireland. Solar energy especially is being rapidly deployed, increasing 42% from 2023 to 2024, according to a recent report by the Irish Solar Energy Association. There has also been significant policy announcements this year designed to incentivise the development of offshore wind. Onshore wind however has seen a significant downward growth trajectory recently.

Ireland’s largest solar farm, at the Eli Lilly plant at Dunderrow, near Kinsale, Co Cork. Solar energy has been rapidly deployed, increasing by 42% from 2023 to 2024. Picture: Neil Michael

Planning concerns

A fundamental aspect to renewable development is securing planning permission for the site. Wind Energy Ireland (WEI), has serious concerns about the numbers of renewable projects being granted planning permission in Ireland.

Consequently, WEI is publishing a quarterly dashboard that highlights the volume of wind projects that remain in the planning permission process. To stay on track to reach the 2030 targets, WEI forecasted that 860 megawatt (MW) of renewable generation needed to be granted planning permission in the first half of 2024.

However, only 228MW was awarded with 459MW rejected and a further 1766MW still in the process. They say that anti-wind county development plans are making obtaining planning permission very challenging.

As well as this existing backlog of projects there is a growing concern about the expiration of planning permission for 854MW of existing, operational wind farms. It has been proposed that planning permission extensions are granted so as not to exacerbate an already overburdened planning system and to ensure operational windfarms are not forced to decommission.

Like any business venture, renewable developers need to develop a business case to justify the investment in their projects. To date the main route to market for these developers has been through government backed support schemes (RESS) that provide certainty of revenue to participants.

Over the years, the government have made a number of improvements to the terms and conditions of the scheme to increase participation, most recently to alleviate some of the risk around electricity grid development and planning permission delays, however developers still consider the risk of participation to be high.

Onshore wind sites are struggling to secure planning permission for sites. With planning rules also demanding the decommissioning of existing sites. Picture Denis Minihane

Common goal

In 2023, the RESS3 results were disappointing with only three wind projects (148MW) and 20 solar projects (497MW) clearing the auction. It is hoped that participation will be higher for RESS 4, but the auction bid limit has been set lower than expected so it remains to be seen what the results will be.

The key to increasing the levels of renewable generation in Ireland is to encourage all relevant stakeholders to work towards achieving a common goal, learning from each other and progressing the targets in a meaningful, coherent way.

Under the Climate Action Plan 2023, a vital measure was the establishment of the Accelerating Renewable Electricity Taskforce. A body responsible for identifying, coordinating and prioritising policies required to increase onshore renewable deployment. It is important that they are given a full voice at the table to ensure policy decisions do not unintentionally impact the delivery of the 2030 targets.

It is equally as important to acknowledge the significant progress made in increasing renewable electricity generation in Ireland, as it is to recognise that the challenge is intensifying as we progress. Now is the time to build on this momentum and strive to reach as close as possible to our 2030 climate targets.