Heatwaves will get worse the longer we fail to reach net zero targets, research says

Indigenous peoples protesting for climate justice during the COP30 UN Climate Summit on Monday. Photo: AP/Andre Penner

The planet will continue to be hit by hotter, longer, and more frequent heatwaves if we delay reaching a target of net zero emissions, new research has suggested, as negotiations are due to step up a gear in a crucial week at the UN's Cop30 climate change summit.

The conference in Belem, Brazil, has entered its final week, with talks to place among countries to hammer out a consensus on climate goals.

So far, the conference has been criticised for its lack of ambition and fears of lobbyist interference, with one analysis suggesting that more than 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists have been granted access to Cop30, significantly outnumbering every single country’s delegation apart from hosts Brazil.

Minister for the environment, Darragh O’Brien, who will co-lead the EU's negotiating team on adaptation at this year’s summit, and arrived in northern Brazil at the weekend.

The Irish delegation at Cop30 has said it will be advocating for progressing global climate action, sustainable finance and practical outcomes to deliver energy affordability and climate resilience.

“Climate diplomacy is not an abstract exercise,” he said. “To have legitimacy and meaning it must deliver energy affordability, resilience to extreme weather and opportunities for workers.

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“For Ireland, adaptation has and always will be central to our international climate diplomacy. I look forward to working with the rest of the EU's excellent negotiating team to secure an outcome that responds the urgency of the moment here in Belém.” 

Meanwhile, the first week of Cop30 was marked by “the good, the bad and the ugly”, according to Action Aid Ireland chief executive Karol Balfe, as she urged countries to reach a deal on a just transition — a framework to ensure the shift to a low-carbon economy is fair and inclusive — increased grants-based climate finance, and a move away from “false solutions” such as carbon offsets.

“There is growing recognition that taking shortcuts in social justice makes the climate journey longer,” she said.

“However, the second biggest polluter, and the world’s biggest employer — agriculture — is still missing from the just transition text. Cop30 needs to address this gap in a global approach to just transition.” 

Research

It all comes as new research suggests heatwaves will considerably worsen the later net zero emissions is reached globally.

Scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and Australia’s national science agency, the CSIRO, simulated how heatwaves would respond over the next 1,000 years, examining the differences for each five-year delay in reaching net zero between 2030 and 2060.

The research, published in the journal Environmental Research Climate, found that for countries near the equator, delaying net zero until 2050 would result in heatwave events that break current historical records at least once a year.

“The thing with net zero and heat waves is: we’re damned if we do, but we’re completely stuffed if we don’t,” the study’s lead author Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick said.