Tesla and Byd will stay ahead of VW for years in global EV race

Chinese company Byd's car factory in Hungary.

The fight for electric-vehicle sales leadership will be a two-company race for at least the next few years, with Tesla Inc and Byd remaining well ahead of Volkswagen, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

While Tesla fell behind Byd in fourth quarter sales of battery-electric vehicles, BI expects the US company to stay ahead on an annual basis through the end of the decade. VW is “no longer a contender” for the EV crown, analysts led by Michael Dean said, though they expect internal combustion engine models to keep dominating industrywide earnings.

“Increased BEV rivalry is likely to spur intense price competition, pressuring margins, and BEV markets may remain fragmented, with Tesla the only real global player until legacy automakers launch scalable next-gen platforms in 2026-27,” Mr Dean writes in a report.

“For now, BEV growth expectations may be blunted given consumer apathy over a lack of fast public chargers and high prices, though China is an exception,” he said.

BI’s view of VW’s positioning in EVs has deteriorated substantially in the last year and a half. In June 2022, Mr Dean predicted the German manufacturer would pull ahead of Tesla in 2024.

Meanwhile, just a third of Chinese automakers met their annual sales goal in 2023 as competition in the world’s largest car market heats up.

Bloomberg