Vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna face lower revenues as Omicron wanes

With the lower severity of the omicron wave, further boosters may only be used in those aged over 50 or 60.

Evidence that Omicron is a less-severe disease than earlier Covid-19 variants will likely blunt growth in vaccine sales this year as wealthier countries rein in purchases, according to a forecasting firm. 

Sales of Covid vaccines, excluding those from China and India, will increase to about $85bn in 2022, down about 28% from an earlier estimate of $118bn, London-based Airfinity said. The revision was also due to lower prices paid by poorer nations that are finally obtaining shots, the analytics firm said.

Omicron has spread rapidly around the world but appears less likely to cause hospitalisations and deaths than predecessors such as delta, which the new variant displaced in just weeks. 

While health experts warn that the global crisis isn’t over and significant risks remain, optimism for a pandemic reprieve is likely to limit richer countries’ vaccine purchases, Airfinity said. 

Demand for doses is still rising, and booster programmes in high-income countries will be a key driver, according to Airfinity, which estimates that sales will climb almost 30% in 2022 from about $66bn last year. Moderna chief executive Stephane Bancel said last week he expected another Covid booster shot would be needed in the autumn. 

Moderna could record about $26bn in sales this year, while Pfizer and German partner BioNTech may reel in about $43bn, Airfinity estimates. AstraZeneca is expected to generate $4.3bn in vaccine revenue, Airfinity said.

The biggest question for Moderna is how the reality of Omicron’s immune escape affects the need for booster shots, said Sam Fazeli, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. 

With the lower severity of the omicron wave, further boosters may only be used in those aged over 50 or 60, he said.

Bloomberg