Global trade war unlikely

The year may have got off to a flyer, but the first half of 2018 has been characterised by the return of risk aversion and volatility in financial markets, writes Oliver Mangan.

This has seen the dollar recover strongly after a weak start to the year, and stock markets give up early gains to leave most of the main indices slightly down at end June.

The one constant has been the steady policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve.