Export value growth sinks to lowest level this year

Ireland is still expected to generate another record annual trade surplus this year despite new CSO figures showing export value growth sunk to its lowest level of the year in August.

The data put the value of seasonally adjusted goods exports from Ireland in August at just over €9bn, down by 4.2% on the preceding month and the lowest level in 2017 to date.

A 2% increase in import value, to €5.4bn, resulted in a trade surplus of just under €3.6bn, which was 12% down on July’s level.

While Ireland’s trade data has remained positive in the past 12 months, the continuing concern over Brexit will impact Ireland — and be negative on trade — in the coming months and years, according to Merrion Stockbrokers chief economist Alan McQuaid.

“The uncertainty over the implications of Britain’s decision to leave the EU suggests risks on the external trade front remain elevated going forward, especially for food exporters,” said Mr McQuaid.

“The movement in the euro/sterling exchange rate will be critical in this regard. A sustained rally in the pound looks unlikely in the near term unless there are positive vibes coming out of Brussels as regards the Brexit negotiations.”

Britain only accounts for around 16% of Ireland’s total exports, but 30% of all employment here is in sectors heavily related to UK-bound exports.

Despite the trade outlook remaining uncertain, Mr McQuaid said 2017 should see a solid performance.

“With the trade balance in the first eight months running €1.3bn above that of the same time last year, another record surplus now looks on the cards of around €46bn-€47bn,” he said.